Main points:
IDF Activity in Lebanon:
Since the ceasefire went into effect on November 27, the IDF has killed 44 terrorists, attacked 25 times in Lebanese territory, and recorded 47 violations of the ceasefire agreement by Hezbollah.
This past week, IDF forces continued their activity to remove threats in southern Lebanon in accordance with the terms of the ceasefire.
IDF forces located military equipment and weapons depots in civilian buildings. The IDF forces found numerous weapons, including IEDs, explosive devices, RPG missiles, and Kalashnikov rifles, in one of the buildings that served as a pharmacy. The forces also located Burkan missiles, mortar shells, mortars, and ready-to-use weapons. During another operation, the forces discovered launchers aimed at Israeli territory, along with a truck containing 40 rocket launchers and other weapons such as rifles, machine guns, anti-tank missiles, and observation systems.
Additionally, IDF soldiers discovered an underground tunnel that led to Hezbollah’s headquarters. This tunnel contained missile launchers that had fired rockets into Israeli territory over the past year, along with a significant number of IEDs.
UNIFIL expressed concern in a statement this past week (December 26) about the IDF’s destruction of residential areas, agricultural lands, and road networks in southern Lebanon. Regrettably, UNIFIL’s announcement omitted the fact that the IDF destroyed terrorist targets Hezbollah had established within the civilian population as part of its human shield tactics.
Local reports indicate that Israel launched an air attack in the early morning hours of December 25, targeting a compound of buildings southwest of Hizzine, between Chmistar and Brital, southwest of Baalbek in the Bekaa Valley. It is possible that this is an attempt to attack advanced weapons that have reached Hezbollah recently, as part of its efforts to restore its military strength. Another possibility is that Hezbollah transferred the weapons from Syria to Lebanon before the rebels took control and blocked the corridor to Lebanon. We are uncertain about the type of weapon under attack, but it is evident that Hezbollah, with Iranian assistance, will focus significant efforts on adapting to the new circumstances and creating alternatives and solutions for the weapons routes.
(December 27) In continuation of efforts to prevent Hezbollah’s Unit 4400 from continuing to transfer weapons from Syrian territory to Lebanon, the IDF attacked infrastructure around the Janata crossing on the Syrian-Lebanese border. These were infrastructures that were used to transfer the weapons.
Iran and Hezbollah are laboring to “reconnect the lifeline” of arms transfers to Lebanon. This is a critical issue for the success of Hezbollah’s military reconstruction and buildup.
In our assessment, Iran and Hezbollah will re-establish direct routes to Lebanon in the following ways:
- Direct flights to Beirut and direct ships arriving at the ports of Beirut and/or Tripoli.
- Sending aircraft or ships through a third country to create separation and “shake off tracking.”
- Ships may arrive in Lebanon’s territorial waters, where they will rendezvous with a smaller vessel coming from Lebanon, onto which the weapons will be loaded.
- In our assessment, Iran and Hezbollah will not abandon the land corridor and will attempt to establish alternatives within Syrian territory through local cooperation.
Over the past week, we visited an exhibition held by the IDF in the north of the country, where Hezbollah booty and weapons seized during the ground maneuver in Lebanon were displayed. According to data from the IDF Spokesperson’s Office, during the ground maneuver, the IDF seized about 6,840 RPG and anti-tank launchers (including rockets and missiles), 9,000 IEDs, 2,700 weapons and assault rifles, 300 observation devices, 60 anti-aircraft missiles, 20 vehicles, about 2,000 shells and rockets, and tens of thousands of other means of communication, computers, and technical equipment. Many weapons were destroyed within Lebanese territory during the war. Russia and Iran manufactured the majority of the weapons on display at the exhibition, with Lebanon producing a small portion locally. However, the display also featured weapons made in China, the United States, and more. Boxes of ammunition bearing the shipping address of the Syrian Ministry of Defense were visible, indicating that Hezbollah directly received Russian weapons that had arrived for the Assad regime’s army.
IDF Activity in Syria
(December 25) A demonstration was held in the village of Swisah in southern Syria against the presence of IDF forces.
The Lebanese arena:
Hezbollah – General:
(December 23) Hezbollah continues to support the Syrian refugees in the Bekaa Valley through its aid associations, which distribute equipment and food to them. Hezbollah is not acting out of purely humanitarian motives, to say the least. In our assessment, these are part of Hezbollah’s plans for the “day after.” Hezbollah aspires to establish a relationship with the Syrian refugees who will help it operate on Syrian soil when they return to their country.
(December 24) Yusuf al-Zein took over as the head of Hezbollah’s new information system, succeeding Muhammad Afif, who was eliminated in November 2024. In recent days, there have been reports of several other appointments that Hezbollah has not yet officially announced, including the appointment of MP Muhammad Ra’ad as deputy secretary-general Naim Qassem, Sheikh Ali Damoush as chairman of Hezbollah’s Executive Council, and Hassan Fadlallah, a member of parliament, as head of the “Loyalty to the Resistance” bloc in parliament.
(December 24) Following a video posted on social media, showing Shiite singer Ragheb Alama mocking Nasrallah’s death, Hezbollah supporters launched a campaign of vandalism in the streets of Beirut. The rioters took to the streets carrying Hezbollah flags and chanting “Shia, Shia,” and, among other things, they also burned down a school owned by Alama the singer.
Civilian Activity – Reconstruction of Lebanon
According to a report in the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Akhbar newspaper, the US administration’s envoy, Amos Hochstein, warned the Lebanese government against Iran’s involvement in the country’s post-war reconstruction process. Hochstein stressed that any role of Iran, both through Iranian companies and through direct assistance, would jeopardize the implementation of the full ceasefire and harm the achievement of stability in the country. Subsequently, reports from Lebanon indicate that the Lebanese government rejected the offer of Iranian financial aid for the reconstruction of the country.
However, Hezbollah continues to develop and operate its own self-rehabilitation mechanisms. The organization finances the reconstruction activities using its financial resources, which include donations from Iran, in order to
repair the damage caused during the war. Just this week, it was reported that in Jabal Amal, Hezbollah had transferred an initial payment of $1.6 million for the purpose of rehabilitating the area that was damaged.
For the past month, the “Jihad Al-Bina” Association has been working together with the Meamar company to carry out damage assessments of buildings damaged in the war. So far, more than 60% of the damaged buildings have been inspected throughout Lebanon. The foundation operates according to a model of geographically dividing suburbs and towns throughout the country into small groups, each with 10-20 localities. Each group has an independent center that is managed by a professional team that includes a manager and several engineers under it. This process includes the establishment of 46 regional offices, staffed by 1,319 volunteers and experts who have so far surveyed more than 185,000 structures damaged during the war.
After the damage tests are completed, the reports are sent to control centers, where they are re-examined by additional senior engineers, who enter the data into a special computer system that calculates the cost of compensation. This compensation is transferred by means of checks that can be cashed at the branches of “Al-Qard Al-Hassan” Bank.
In addition, for the first time, Hezbollah’s Public Works Department has resumed its activity of infrastructure rehabilitation. As part of the Public Works and Post-War Damage Repair Service, Hezbollah’s Municipal Works Administration in the Jabal Amal area carried out maintenance work on the main water feeder line between the towns of Kafr Dunin and Chehabiyeh, and new networks were installed that enables the water to be pumped normally. This line distributes water to about 15 villages in the south.
Lebanon – General:
(December 23) Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati visited Marjayoun in southern Lebanon, where he met with Lebanese Army Commander Joseph Aoun.
(December 24) Mikati meet with the international committee responsible for overseeing the implementation of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
(December 28) Lebanon returned about 70 Syrian officers and soldiers back to Syrian territory after they illegally crossed the border into Lebanon.
The Syrian Arena:
On December 8, 2024, Ahmed al-Shara (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) established the new transitional government in Syria, slated to serve until March 1, 2025, as part of his efforts to stabilize the country’s political systems following the overthrow of the Assad regime. Al-Shara has taken several actions, including the announcement of dismantling armed organizations and their integration into the Syrian army, as well as efforts to revive economic and political activity in Syria. This government plays a critical role in stabilizing Syria and consolidating the future government, as well as in initiating the country’s future reconstruction efforts.
However, it’s important to note that many of the ministers in the transitional government have direct ties to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, having previously served in the Idlib Salvation Government. Furthermore, some of the ministers exhibit Islamist worldviews that range from moderate to extreme.
For more information on the ministers of the transitional government, see our article on the transitional government in Syria.
Some of the most prominent figures in the rebel leadership in southern Syria were rebels in the opposition during the civil war of the previous decade. Some of them switched sides and became supporters of the Assad regime and the Shiite axis. Today, they have reunited with the rebels. Some of them were (and may still be) involved in the Captagon industry. Read the attached article: Southern Syria – Prominent figures in the rebel leadership.
(December 23-25) Al-Julani, the leader of the Syria, met with a Qatari delegation in Damascus. After the meeting, Al-Julani noted that Qatar would be a significant partner in the development phase in Syria. At the same time, the Turkish Minister of Transportation announced that Turkey will renovate the railway lines in Syria and renew the country’s communications infrastructure and help in various fields.
(December 24) The Syrian leadership announced that an agreement had been reached to dismantle the Syrian factions and unite them under the Syrian Ministry of Defense. As a result, the collection of weapons from all the organizations in the country will commence soon. Additionally, Al-Julani stated that negotiations are underway with the SDF to resolve the crisis in northeastern Syria and that the Kurds will also be integrated under the Syrian Ministry of Defense.
At the same time, the campaign continues in the Syrian coastal cities (the Alawite area) to regulate the status of members of the Assad regime, grant certificates of pardon, and persecute those who are in hiding.
(December 24) The Iranian government spokesperson announced that Iran was in diplomatic talks to reopen the Iranian embassy in Damascus and the Syrian embassy in Tehran. At this stage, there is no official confirmation from the leadership. Moreover, according to various reports, the new leadership in Syria is preparing a memorandum for the International Criminal Courts, in which it will demand $300 billion in compensation from Iran for the damage it has caused to the Syrian people in recent years as part of its support for the Assad regime.
According to former Syrian Prime Minister (on behalf of the Assad regime),Mohammad Ghazi Al-Jalali, Syria’s debt to Iran amounts to about $30 billion, since Iran supported Syria with $3 billion a year. Iran supplied the Assad regime with 3 million barrels of oil a month, 2 million of which were free.
(December 25) Religious and sectarian tensions in Syria are re-emerging, undermining the fragile stability of the new regime. Over the past week, Christians staged demonstrations in response to attacks on Christmas symbols and the church, while members of the Alawite community protested the damage to a sacred religious site. Foreign elements, according to government officials, carried out the attacks on Christian symbols, while during the Alawite protests, there were reports of clerics affiliated to Iran and Hezbollah attempting to set the area on fire and incite violence among the demonstrators. Iran and Hezbollah, having lost their advantage in the country, have a clear interest in causing chaos in Syria. Amidst the divided reality of many religions and sects, the fear of a deterioration into another civil war remains more real than ever.
(December 26), The Syrian interior minister announced that former Assad regime operatives ambushed 14 members of the security forces in the coastal city of Tartus in western Syria, resulting in 14 deaths and 10 injuries. During the riots, there was an exchange of fire between operatives of the former Assad regime and operatives of the new regime, who launched an operation to neutralize the militants in the city of Tartus. Among other things, it was reported that helicopters were used to search the city. At the same time, unverified reports are emerging about abuse against Alawites.
(December 29) A UAV attack in the Adara industrial zone in the suburbs of Damascus apparently targeted weapons depots, resulting in casualties.
(December 29) In an interview with Al-Arabiya, Al-Jolani stated that it would take three years to draft Syria’s new constitution and four years to hold elections in the country.
The Shiite Axis – General
Yemen – Houthi-Land:
During the past week (December 23-29), the Houthis carried out 10 attacks against population centers in Israel (Tel Aviv area) with ballistic missiles and UAVs and another attack on the Santa Ursula ship in the Arabian Sea. The increase in the number of Houthi attacks against Israel led to another Israeli attack in Yemen on December 26. Several Houthi targets were attacked, including the international airport in Sana’a, which is used by the Houthis for the transfer of weapons, the Aziz and Ras Khatib power plants, and infrastructure in the ports of Hodeida, al-Salif, and Ras Khatib in Yemen’s western coastal strip. Coalition forces reportedly attacked Houthi sites in Yemen on December 28, and on December 29, they targeted the house of a senior Houthi naval force member.
Since October 2023, there have been 315 Houthi attacks against Israel, the United States, and other targets.
