Insights
This week, on November 27, 2024, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah went into effect. Since then, Hezbollah has committed numerous violations, seemingly aiming to reestablish its terror infrastructure. Additionally, Hezbollah-backed southern Lebanon residents are attempting to return to villages under IDF control, which are considered restricted zones.
With the beginning of the ceasefire, Hezbollah intensified its campaign of “victory” in Lebanon. Hezbollah is waging an intensive propaganda campaign to present a “victory picture” and strengthen its position among the Shiite population, using the distortion of reality and the glorification of imaginary achievements. Hezbollah is trying to maintain the narrative of standing firm against Israel and tying itself to the Palestinian struggle, even though its actions on the ground do not always match (to say the least) its statements.
In parallel with its military rehabilitation efforts, Hezbollah is also investing efforts in civilian support activities for its Shiite base that has been displaced from their homes. See article – Hezbollah’s Efforts to Help the Uprooted Shiite Base.
The Mind set in Lebanon has not changed during the war. Criticisms is still heard from those who oppose Hezbollah, while Hezbollah’s Shiite base remains loyal, at least in appearance.
Iran is working to consolidate its influence in the region through Hezbollah, focusing on economic and logistical support and the rehabilitation of civilian infrastructure. It also serves as leverage to increase the local population’s dependence on it and Hezbollah.
With the implementation of the ceasefire in Lebanon, the rebel forces in northern Syria (the Idlib Province) launched a large-scale offensive against the forces of the Assad regime and the Shiite axis. An attack that poses significant dilemmas and challenges to the Assad regime, Iran, and Russia, and could be a very significant event in the conflict in Syria.
The Lebanese arena:
War data:
In the fighting against Hezbollah in the northern arena, 45 Israeli civilians and 79 IDF soldiers were killed, a total of 124 people.
See the summary of war data – the northern arena.
In Israel, the government evacuated 43 communities located up to five kilometers from the Lebanese border. A total of about 68,000 citizens. To them were added several thousand more who decided to evacuate independently. It should be noted that some of the Israeli communities have not been fully evacuated and there is a civilian presence there (agriculture and industry).
The residents have not yet received an official order to return to their homes. According to a government decision, the evacuation period, as of this writing, is until December 31, 2024.
Many areas of Israel, including Tel Aviv and its center, Haifa, the valleys, the communities along the conflict line, and the northern Golan, experienced the lifting of security restrictions and defense directives after the ceasefire went into effect.
According to data from the Ministry of Defense’s “Northern Horizon” Administration, since the beginning of the war, 2,874 structures have been damaged in northern communities: 1,669 are residential buildings, 213 are public buildings, 104 are infrastructures, and about 150 are agricultural structures. 841 of them sustained moderate to heavy damage and will require reconstruction. The city of Kiryat Shmona suffered the heaviest damage – 382 structures, 73 of which were moderate to heavy damage. Other communities that suffered heavy damage are Shlomi, Nahariya, Manara, and Metula.
According to initial estimates by the Property Tax Division of the Tax Authority, direct damage to property along the northern border amounts to 1.5 billion shekels. They further estimated that the indirect damage in communities near the Lebanese border will reach approximately 3.5–4 billion shekels.
Prominent launching and shooting incidents against Israel (25-27 Nov.)
Hezbollah maintained its offensive actions against Israel up until the implementation of the ceasefire (November 27). This week, spanning from November 25 to 27, Hezbollah executed 64 attacks on Israel, focusing on communities near to the border, including the cities of Nahariya, Acre, Katzrin, Haifa, and the Krayot, in addition to one attack aimed at the center of the country toward the area of Hadera and Binyamina.
Prominent Attacks in Lebanon (November 25-27)
Until the implementation of the ceasefire on November 27, the IDF continued its attacks against Hezbollah terrorist targets in Lebanon.
Hezbollah weapons depots in Bint Jbeil, including those of the Nasser unit, and Hezbollah weapons depots and military headquarters in the areas of a-Naqoura and Yater in southern Lebanon were attacked. Other attacks targeted about 20 rocket launchers and a building belonging to Hezbollah’s air unit.
Twenty-nine terrorist targets of Hezbollah’s management and storage of funds were attacked in Beirut, Sidon, Tyre, and the Bekaa Valley. The targets attacked included headquarters, money depots, and branches of the Al-Kardh Al-Hassan Association, which are used by Hezbollah to collect and store its terrorist funds, which it uses for its military buildup. The Al-Insaf exchange branch, which transferred money to Hezbollah and helped finance Hezbollah’s military activity, was also attacked.
In the Dahieh, a key Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut, additional Hezbollah terrorist targets were attacked, including a headquarters belonging to the air unit, an intelligence headquarters, headquarters, weapons depots, an operations room, an artillery depot and military buildings.
On Nov. 26, before the cease-fire went into effect, the IDF attacked Hezbollah’s largest precision missile manufacturing site in the Janata area of the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon (near the border with Syria). At the site, Hezbollah manufactured surface-to-surface missiles and components of various weapons, as well as stored precision weapons. The site, located near the Syrian border, was a central point through which thousands of components of weapons and operatives were smuggled from Syria to Lebanon. A training camp in the same area, belonging to the Radwan unit, was attacked.
During the war, the IDF attacked and destroyed about 360 terrorist targets throughout Beirut.
Ceasefire violations perpetrated by Hezbollah
Despite the IDF’s repeated warnings to Lebanese residents not to return to villages in southern Lebanon, which are considered no-go areas, Hezbollah encourages residents of southern Lebanon to come to the area, thus violating the ceasefire agreement.
(November 27) In the morning, it was reported that several individuals in cars and motorcycles had arrived at the villages of Kfarkila, Miss al-Jabal, Markaba, and al-Odaisseh in southern Lebanon, dozens of meters from the border in a no-go area. IDF forces fired warning shots at the suspects.
(November 28) There were reports of several violations of the cease-fire agreements, in which the IDF fired warning shots to drive away Lebanese approaching the no-go zone in southern Lebanon. Lebanese sources reported that distancing shots were fired in the villages of Markaba, Yarun, Shebaa, Al-Wazzani, Bint Jbeil, Ayta ash-Shaab, Maroun a-Ras, Al-Khiam, Marjayoun, and Taybeh.
The IDF carried out a UAV attack on a vehicle in the village of Merkava to drive its passengers away from the no-go area. As a result of the shooting, two injuries were reported. Additionally, IDF forces detained several suspects who approached them in Tir Harfa.
(November 29 – November 30) Armed Hezbollah operatives who were operating in a terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon and armed men who were loading weapons onto a vehicle that included crates of ammunition and other military equipment were attacked. Additionally, the Israeli Air Force attacked Hezbollah rocket launchers after identifying terrorist activity near them. In another incident, an Israeli Air Force aircraft, under the direction of the Intelligence Directorate, attacked a military vehicle operating around Hezbollah’s missile manufacturing infrastructure deep inside Lebanon.
(December 1) Several armed terrorists were operating adjacent to a local church in Al Khiam, known as a Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure. IDF forces killed the terrorists and, upon searching the premises, discovered a weapon-laden tunnel shaft. The terrorists were members of Hezbollah’s ground defense, anti-tank, and artillery systems in the sector, and they used the church as a shield for their terrorist activities.
Hezbollah – General:
Over the past week, senior Hezbollah officials, headed by Naim Qassem, and public figures have made similar statements to portray Hezbollah’s “victory.” Many of them repeated their claims that the reason for the victory was Hezbollah’s firm and patient position in the fight against Israel. Additionally, they said they would not abandon Palestine, their main goal.
Keep in mind that Hezbollah agreed to the ceasefire after Nasrallah and senior Hezbollah officials stressed throughout the war that they would not cease the fighting until the fighting in Gaza stopped.
Hezbollah is dedicating substantial resources to propaganda, with the goal of exalting its accomplishments, forging a triumphant image, and fortifying its reputation among the Shiite community. The media activity, official statements, posters, the presence of its activists, and the hanging of Hezbollah flags on the ruins of demolished houses all reflect this.
In this context, Hezbollah presents exaggerated achievements while distorting reality. Hezbollah’s declaration, before the implementation of the ceasefire, that it had conducted a UAV attack on the home of Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, the Israeli Air Force commander, serves as a prominent example of this distortion. Hezbollah falsely claimed to have carried out a UAV attack on Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar’s home, an event that never occurred.
(November 28) According to an article by Ibrahim al-Amin, editor-in-chief of Al-Akhbar, a newspaper affiliated with Hezbollah, which was initially published in Al-Akhbar and later removed before being republished on another platform, he issued a warning to Israel. Al-Amin stated that any attempt to enforce the agreement would prompt a decisive and direct response from Hezbollah, without waiting for the findings of the “Complaints Committee.” According to him, “Hezbollah will punish the enemy immediately based on the right to self-defense stipulated in the agreement.”
So far, Hezbollah has not responded to the routine enforcement actions by the IDF, which have exacted a toll on Hezbollah, including the killing of operatives, damage to weapons, and exposure of underground infrastructure.
Al-Amin further noted that Hezbollah opposes any attempt by Israel, via the Americans or other parties in the international forces, to raid homes or private property in any area of Lebanon, whether south or north of the Litani River. He asserted, “No Lebanese or international entity has the right to approach private property without a legal warrant.”
Here, al-Amin aligns with UNIFIL’s longstanding argument against enforcing Resolution 1701, which states that the resolution does not authorize UNIFIL to enter private property without a legal warrant. As a result, UNIFIL has refrained for years from entering Shiite villages and exposing weapons hidden in homes. Hezbollah is likely laying the groundwork to conceal its military activities by prioritizing reconstruction efforts within homes.
Additionally, al-Amin mentioned that Hezbollah would feel compelled to act to secure the release of its prisoners held by Israel if Israel does not release them as quickly as possible. This could preserve a pretext for Hezbollah’s offensive actions against Israel, possibly including kidnapping operations.
(November 29) Naim Qassem’s speech
Naim Qassem continues to promote Hezbollah’s narrative of victory in the war. He notes that Hezbollah is facing a major victory: “We announce that we are facing a great victory in the battle of the ‘beginning of defeat’ [of Israel], which exceeds the victory achieved in 2006. We won because we prevented the ‘Zionist entity’ from ending and weakening the resistance from destroying Hezbollah, and the defeat envelops the Israeli enemy from all sides.” According to him, Hezbollah has regained its strength and re-established the command-and-control system, standing firm at the front, hitting the enemy’s home front and inflicting very heavy losses on Israel. (Note: so, Qassem acknowledges that the “Zionist entity” was capable of destructing Hezbollah…)
Qassem points out that Hezbollah only supported Gaza, and that Israel expanded the war in September 2024 by eliminating Nasrallah. Qassem stressed that Hezbollah’s steadfast stance frightened the Israeli army and led to despair among its politicians and people. “We did not want the war from the beginning, but we wanted the result of its cessation from a position of strength and under fire,” noting that “the occupation gambled on internal conflicts and this gamble was a failure because of cooperation between ethnic groups and forces.” (Note: here, too, Qasem’s short memory deceives him… Hezbollah is so “frightened of Israel” that Israel is still present on Lebanese soil attacking its operatives who violate the ceasefire every day… In addition, Qassem ignores the fact that all the sects in Lebanon, except for the Shiites of course, have distanced themselves even further from Hezbollah in the wake of the war.)
According to him, the ceasefire agreement is not an agreement, and it authorizes the withdrawal of the IDF from all the places it has conquered, and the Lebanese army will be deployed south of the Litani. The agreement was made within the limits of Lebanese sovereignty, and therefore Hezbollah agreed to it. Sheikh Qassem stressed that the coordination between the resistance and the Lebanese army will be at a high level to implement the commitments of the agreement, saying, “Our perception of the Lebanese army is that it is a national army, a leadership and a manpower, and it will spread in our homeland.”
Qassem thanked the Hezbollah fighters and wounded and expressed his appreciation for the displaced and those whose homes were destroyed. In addition, he thanked the speaker of parliament and head of the Amal Movement, Nabih Berri, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Imam Khamenei, the Revolutionary Guards, the Iranian people, and the Yemeni, Iraqi, and Syrian leadership. Naim Qassem stressed that Hezbollah’s support for Palestine will not stop and will continue in various ways. (Note: The unification of the arenas collapsed in the context of Hezbollah. Qassem is trying to preserve the narrative of the unification of the arenas).
Qassem noted that Hezbollah will help rebuild and rehabilitate southern Lebanon. Hezbollah will cooperate with Lebanon and all organizations and countries that are willing to assist Lebanon in its reconstruction. In addition, he noted that Hezbollah will cooperate with all political forces and ensure that the constitutional institutions and the election of a president for Lebanon are completed.
(November 30) Hezbollah held a “light of light” event (an audio-visual show) at the site of the elimination of former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Harat Harik in Beirut.
(December 1) the Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association officially announced the reopening of 16 bank branches across Lebanon, primarily in Dahiyeh, Beirut, the Beqaa Valley, and several branches in southern Lebanon. This marks the first time the bank has reopened since the ceasefire.
In recent days and the coming weeks, Hezbollah has been organizing gatherings and funerals for its operatives who were killed in the war, including those initially buried outside their hometowns, now being reinterred in their villages.
The Mind set in Lebanon has not changed during the war. Criticisms is still heard from those who oppose Hezbollah, while Hezbollah’s Shiite base remains loyal, at least in appearance.
Lebanon – General:
(November 27) After the ceasefire went into effect, the Lebanese began to return to their homes in Beirut, in southern Lebanon, and Lebanese who fled to Syria during the war are also returning to Lebanon. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, the number of displaced persons registered in shelters decreased by 76.97%, with the number of displaced persons in shelters reaching 33,758 displaced persons living in 713 centers, and 296 centers being closed. In addition, between September 23 and November 26, 2024, General Security documented the passage of 396,523 Syrian civilians and 244,640 Lebanese citizens into Syrian territory.
(November 28) The Lebanese parliament speaker, Nabih Berri, has set a date for the presidential election session on January 9, 2025.
(November 29) According to the latest reports by the Lebanese Ministry of Health, the total number of dead and wounded from the beginning of the war until the day of the ceasefire reached 3,961 dead and 16,520 wounded.
(November 29) The Lebanese Minister of National Security, Maurice Salim, referred to the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers the draft order to transfer to the Ministry of Defense – the army command- an advance of 113 billion and 250 million Lebanese pounds (about $127,000) to cover the monthly cost of recruiting soldiers to the army for a period of three months. Minister Salim explained that “his signing of the conscription order was based on his belief that the recruitment of 1,500 soldiers for the army is a necessary step in order to strengthen the army’s capabilities on the one hand, and to enable it to deploy additional forces in southern Lebanon to implement Resolution 1701 in all its aspects, on the other hand, in accordance with the ceasefire agreement approved by the Council of Ministers a few days ago.”
(November 29) Economy and Trade Minister Amin Salam said on Friday that the losses incurred in Lebanon by all basic sectors, especially tourism and agriculture, as a result of the war range from $15 billion to $20 billion, according to preliminary estimates. He added that about 500,000 Lebanese have lost their jobs because of the displacement of about 1.5 million civilians, in addition to the destruction of many infrastructures and commercial institutions and the complete paralysis of the tourism industry. These are preliminary and unsubstantiated estimates.
(November 30) In an item on Hezbollah’s Al-Mayadeen TV in Nabatiyeh, members of the Iranian Red Crescent are seen working to clear rubble in the city. Iranian involvement in the reconstruction of southern Lebanon is not surprising. Iran is working to consolidate its influence in the region through Hezbollah, focusing on economic and logistical support and the rehabilitation of civilian infrastructure, which also serves as leverage to increase the local population’s dependence on it and Hezbollah. The activities of the Iranian Red Crescent are also known to serve as a cover for Iranian military intelligence operations. See our report on the Iranian Red Crescent.
The Lebanese Army:
Over the past week, reports from Lebanon indicated that units of the Lebanese Army have begun operations in southern Lebanon, the Beqaa Valley, and Dahiyeh in Beirut, where they are working to set up checkpoints, neutralize weapons, and clear roads.
In an official statement by the Lebanese army, it completely ignored Hezbollah’s violations and accused Israel of committing several violations of the ceasefire.
The Syrian Arena:
(November 26) Several official and unofficial border crossings were reported to have been attacked, including the Al-Araida crossing south of Tartus. See the article – The land crossings between Syria and Lebanon – Hezbollah’s oxygen pipeline.
Wednesday (November 27) The rebel forces in northern Syria launched a large-scale attack against the Assad regime and the Shiite Axis forces. So far, the rebels have taken control of Aleppo, Idlib, and the surrounding areas to the outskirts of Hama, cutting off the M-5 road connecting Damascus and Aleppo. In addition, rebel forces have taken control of many military bases and strategic sites in these areas. This attack poses significant dilemmas and challenges to the Assad regime, Iran, and Russia, and could be a very significant event in the conflict in Syria. See the article – The Surprise Attack of the Rebels in Syria.
(November 29) Reports indicated that the opposition forces were advancing to seize control of Aleppo and its surrounding areas, including the takeover of one of the Center for Scientific Research’s (CERS) sites. The location of the site is “al-Rashideen,” west of Aleppo city. From what we know, this site operates Branch 340 of the 4000 Institute in CERS. This branch is responsible for missile research and development and the mechanical department. The site may also house weapons. We are aware of two other CERS sites, located 20 and 25 kilometers away, in the southeast of the city of Aleppo. The first one is located in the defense factories complex near Al-Safirah. Until the civil war in Syria, the site was home to the 3000 Institute for the production and storage of chemicals, including Sarin gas. We are uncertain about its current use as a hosting site. The “Suleiman” site, located 25 kilometers southeast of Aleppo, could potentially have a connection to Institute 4000. An unknown party previously attacked these two sites from the air.
“The Defense Enterprises Complex”:
The “Suleiman” site:
(November 29) According to reports, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Aleppo, Kioumars Pourhashemi, was killed in a special operation conducted in the city of Aleppo. According to Iranian media reports, Pourhashemi served as the commander of the Iranian “advisory forces” of the Revolutionary Guards in Aleppo.
(November 30) According to various reports, the IDF instructed an Iranian cargo plane carrying aid en route to Syria to turn back. The aircraft is believed to be operated by Mahan Air, a company known to operate under the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. For further details, see our special report on the subject: Mahan Air – Smuggling Weapons to Syria and Lebanon in Service of the Iranian Quds Force.
Syria General
(November 24) Hezbollah launched rockets from Lebanon towards the northern Golan Heights. One rocket hit an UNDOF post in Syria.
(November 27) The European Union announced the expansion of the list of sanctions imposed on the Syrian regime to include new ministers in the Syrian government due to the ongoing repression and human rights violations in Syria. The statement said that three ministers had been added: Minister of Internal Trade and Consumer Protection Luai Imad al-Din al-Munajid, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Firas Hassan Qadour, and Minister of State Ahmed Muhammad Boustaji. The sanctions will include asset freezes, travel bans to the European Union, and a ban on the provision of funds or economic resources for their benefit, directly or indirectly.
Shiite Axis – General
Attacks on U.S. forces:
(November 26) It was reported that the pro-Iranian militias fired two missiles at the base of the US-led international coalition in the city of al-Shaddadi, south of Al-Hasakah. It was reported that one missile was intercepted.
In response, U.S. forces attacked an Iranian militia facility in Syria. The Central Command said in a statement that its forces attacked a facility for storing weapons of pro-Iranian militias in Syria, in response to an attack against American forces.
(November 29) It was reported that a UAV launched by pro-Iranian militias at the American base in Al-Tanf on the Syrian-Iraqi-Jordanian border was intercepted.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq:
During the past week (November 25 to December 1), two UAVs launched from Iraq were intercepted, and another UAV fell in an open area. Unusually, no group claimed responsibility for these attacks.
From November 2, 2023, when the Islamic Resistance in Iraq began to carry out attacks against Israel, until December 1, 2024, they assumed responsibility for 316 attacks against Israel. 94 of them reached Israeli territory (intercepted or fell in open areas).
Yemen – Houthi-land:
(December 1) One missile launched by the Houthis from Yemen at central Israel was intercepted.
(November 30 – December 1) U.S. forces reported intercepting 3 anti-ship missiles, 3 UAVs, and a cruise missile aimed at American destroyers in the Red Sea, which were launched by Houthi forces.
Since October 2023, there have been 230 Houthi attacks against Israel, the United States, and other targets.
