- Like the previous eliminations, the elimination of the commander of the Aziz unit is a significant elimination of his being a very central operational function of Hezbollah in the southern Lebanese arena and the current fight against Israel. Both the Aziz unit and the Nasser units are the most dominant units fighting against Israel.
- The effort of eliminating unit commanders and senior commanders can only be a supportive effort. Ultimately, this is a tactical effort, which usually has no strategic implications. It is a terrorist army with functional continuity. You can see Hezbollah’s significant responses following the assassinations.
- Two members of the Jihad Council who are directly connected to the current fighting and are conducting it, Ibrahim Aqil and Ali Karki, are legitimate targets for preventive measures and should be defined as being” within the boundaries of the sector”. This definition will be reinforced if one of them is physically present for one reason or another in southern Lebanon. In such a case, given the operational opportunity, the need to eliminate one of them is clear and immediate.
The Lebanese arena:
War data:
In Israel, the government evacuated 43 communities located up to five kilometers from the Lebanese border. A total of about 61,000 citizens. To them were added several thousand more who decided to evacuate independently.
It should be noted that some of the Israeli communities have not been fully evacuated and there is a civilian presence there (agriculture and industry).
The Israeli government has extended the evacuation period until 31 August 2024.
Hezbollah has caused the death of 8 Israeli civilians and one agricultural worker with foreign citizenship so far. A total of 9 civilians and 18 IDF soldiers were killed.
During the past week, 64 attacks were carried out on the northern border, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 57 attacks against Israel, utilizing high-trajectory fire (including Grad, Falaq and Burkan rockets), anti-tank missiles, and suicide UAVs.
There has been no claim of responsibility for 7 incidents, including 6 UAV infiltrations and one incident involving a launch at the community of Shtula.
Since the beginning of the war, 2,359 attacks have been carried out in the northern arena, the vast majority of which were carried out by Hezbollah.
Prominent launching and shooting incidents against Israel:
(July 1) Hezbollah launched anti-tank missiles at the communities of Ramot Naftali, Dovev, Metula, Kfar Giladi, and Gornot Hagalil. According to Hezbollah, the attacks were carried out in retaliation for IDF attacks in Lebanon. Most of the launches hit open areas and there were no casualties.
(July 2) Hezbollah launched around 15 Grad rockets toward the city of Kiryat Shmona, with 10 intercepted and 5 falling in open areas. According to Hezbollah, the target was a military base in the city, but the rockets hit residential neighborhoods.
(July 3) In response to the killing of the Hezbollah Aziz unit commander, Ahmed Naama Nasser, Hezbollah launched 16 retaliatory attacks against Israel:
On July 3: Two incidents involving dozens of Grad rockets fired at the Golan Heights, Falaq rockets at Kiryat Shmona, and heavy Burkan rockets launched toward the community of Zarit.
On July 4: Hezbollah launched about 200 rockets and 20 UAVs toward the Golan Heights, Upper Galilee, Western Galilee, and Lower Galilee. According to Hezbollah, the sites targeted were military bases, although many of the rockets hit civilian areas, causing fires in the Golan Heights and the Biriya forest, causing heavy property damage. One soldier was killed and another was wounded.
(July 5) Hezbollah fired Grad rockets at the city of Kiryat Shmona. According to Hezbollah, aiming at a military base in the city, in practice many of the rockets struck civilian areas, causing fires and heavy property damage.
(July 7) In response to the IDF attack in the Bekaa Valley and the killing of a key operative belonging to Hezbollah’s defense system the previous day, Hezbollah carried out three attacks in response:
- The launching of about 20 Grad rockets toward the Lower Galilee. Hezbollah claimed that the target was a military base the rockets hit civilian areas, and one civilian was severely injured. This is the third event in which Hezbollah targets the Lower Galilee. This is an area where there are many Arab communities.
- The launching of around 20 rockets in the Meron area. Following the launches, several fires broke out in the area.
- Launching a suicide UAV at a military base in the Hermon region.
(July 7) Hezbollah fired two anti-tank missiles from the Ayta Ash Shab in southern Lebanon toward the area of Shtula in northern Israel. This is another example of Hezbollah carrying out attacks against Israel from civilian areas in Lebanon and using Lebanese civilians as human shields.
Hezbollah casualties:
Over the past week, a statement was released reporting 5 Hezbollah military operatives killed, among them, Hezbollah Aziz Unit Commander Ahmad Naama Nasser.
As of October 8, 2023, a total of 363 Hezbollah operatives have been killed. Most of the operatives killed live south of the Litani River (245 operatives killed, constituting 67% of all the operatives killed). Many Hezbollah operatives and their families live in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel. They operate in southern Lebanon as part of Hezbollah’s geographic units (Nasser/Aziz) and Hezbollah’s designated units (Radwan unit), while assimilating into the civilian population (human shield tactics).
According to reports in Lebanon, since the beginning of the war, 50 operatives of other organizations in Lebanon have been killed, including Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the Amal Al-Jamaah al-Islamiyah movement (Al-Fajr).
Elimination of senior Hezbollah figures
Since October 8, 2023, 33 senior Hezbollah operatives were eliminated. 39.4% of them, a total of 13, belonged to the geographic units (southern front) with an emphasis on the Nasser unit, including the unit’s commander – Haj Abu Taleb, and Aziz unit commander Ahmad Naama Nasser. Approximately 30.3% of the Radwan unit, which amounts to 10 individuals, including the unit’s acting leader, Wassam al-Tawil were eliminated as well. The primary focus of the Radwan unit and geographical units was on removing sector leaders (like brigade commanders) and commanders in specialized arrays (such as rockets/anti-tanks, etc.). Furthermore, 3 high-ranking operatives from Hezbollah’s air unit and 3 individuals from Hezbollah’s air defense system were eliminated. Out of the total number of people killed, 4 individuals, which is equivalent to 12.1%, were experts in the areas of research, development, manufacture of weapons, and combat support technologies.
Elimination attempts are critical and necessary. Regardless of the eliminations, Hezbollah has operational and command continuity. This endeavor cannot be the primary focus, but rather a concurrent and supplementary effort to the main focus, which is to cause significant harm to Hezbollah’s tactical fire systems and military infrastructure on the southern front, as well as extensive damage to Hezbollah’s strategic fire systems and infrastructure in depth.
Prominent airstrikes in Lebanon
(July 3) Israel eliminated the commander of the Aziz unit (one of the three geographical units in southern Lebanon), Muhammad Naama Nasser (Hajj Abu Naama). Also known as Abu Ali Nasser. Born in 1965 in the village of Haddatha in southern Lebanon. He is the third very senior Hezbollah commander to be eliminated from the beginning of 2024, after the de facto commander of Radwan and the commander of the Nasser unit.
The main geographical units are deployed in southern Lebanon on the “first line of defense and the second line of defense” between the border with Israel and Sidon:
The border area with Israel and the Litani River – the “First Defense Zone”:
Nasser Unit – responsibility in the eastern sector (the Bint Jabal sector and eastward), including Har Dov and up to the geographical border with the Bekaa Valley to the north.
Aziz Unit – Responsible for the western sector in southern Lebanon up to the coast.
Badr Unit – Responsibility for the area from the Litani north to Sidon (the “Second Defense Zone”).
The geographical units in southern Lebanon operate under the command of the Southern Front under the command of Ali Karki. Most of their operatives live in the geographical area for which they are responsible (“local people”). The units have independent combat engineering capabilities, rocket operation (mainly short-range), anti-tank, mortars, light anti-aircraft (shoulder-fired missiles), operation of drones and UAVs, medicine (Islamic Health Organization operatives), logistics, and communications.
Hezbollah’s Al-Abbas Brigades, a special infantry unit, operates in southern Lebanon under geographic units.
The other geographical units are the Khader unit, which is responsible for the Bekaa Valley, with an emphasis on the Baalbek and Al-Hermel areas, and an unknown unit, which is responsible for Beirut, with an emphasis on the Dahiya.
(July 6) In an airstrike on the village of Chaat in the Bekaa Valley (about 100 km from the Israel-Lebanon border), Mitham Mustafa al-Attar was eliminated. Al-Attar (known as Hadi), born in 1991, was a significant source of knowledge in Hezbollah’s air defense system. He visited Iran several times and gained extensive knowledge and experience in the operation of Iranian-manufactured weapons.
(July 7) In an IDF airstrike around Qlaileh, Mustafa Hassan Salman, an operative in Hezbollah’s Rockets and Missiles Unit Salman took part in the planning and execution of numerous terror attacks against the State of Israel.
Hezbollah – General:
(July 1) The leaders of the Amal movement and Hezbollah in Jabal Amal attended their routine meeting at the regional headquarters. Some Amal movement operatives fight against Israel alongside Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
(July 5) Hassan Nasrallah met with a delegation of the Hamas leadership headed by Dr. Khalil al-Haya. They discussed the war and the ongoing ceasefire negotiations. According to sources affiliated with the Shiite axis, both sides reaffirmed their commitment to continue coordination on the ground and in the political arena to achieve the desired goals.
(July 5) At the initiative of Hezbollah, banners and flags were draped throughout Lebanon preparing for Ashura day, marked by the Shias for remembering the death of Hussein, grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, during the Battle of Karbala.
(July 7) In a Video message given by Hassan Nasrallah, as part of a ceremony held in Beirut ahead of Ashura Day, Nasrallah compared the battle of Karbala to the current war.
Lebanon – General:
(July 1) As part of Qatar’s ongoing support for the Lebanese army, the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, contributed $20 million to the Lebanese army.
(July 7) Saudi Arabia’s aid center, in cooperation with the High Commissioner of Aid in Lebanon, donated $10 million for the implementation of 28 development projects in Lebanon, to meet the urgent needs of citizens.
The Syrian arena:
Syria – General:
(July 1) Following accounts that the Iranian militias in Syria were opening a training base near the Imam Ali base, south of Albukamal, it was reported that the militias were calling for the recruitment of volunteers. Each volunteer must bring a recommendation from a leader or friend affiliated with it. The volunteers are to be trained and recruited to units led by the Iraqi recruitment forces and Hezbollah.
(July 1) Riots broke out in Turkey following a report that a Syrian refugee had raped a Turkish child. The Turkish-backed rebels of the Assad regime in Idlib began attacking Turkish civilians and soldiers in response.
(July 7) Against the backdrop of confrontations in Idlib between Syrian regime opponents and Turkish forces, Turkish President Erdogan declared that he will soon extend an invitation to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to restore Turkish-Syrian relations to their pre-war state. This news comes amid suggestions that a meeting of the three, Erdogan-Putin-Assad, may be conducted in Turkey, perhaps leading to reconciliation between Syria and Turkey after relations were severed during the Syrian civil war in 2011.
(July 1) An Iraqi militia association called the Iraqi Resistance Association threatens to renew its attacks on American bases in Iraq and Syria if Israel launches an all-out war with Lebanon.
Southern Syria:
Demonstrations against the regime in the Sweida area have recently erupted again. The demonstrations began last August and have been of varying intensity over the past year. The demonstrations erupted mainly in light of the setting up of military checkpoints in the area and the cessation of the flow of drinking water. For further reading, see the article.
Shiite Axis – General
The most recent attack on American bases in Iraq and Syria by Shiite militias, officially reported by US Central Command, took place on February 20. According to various reports, the attacks on the American bases stopped due to direct Iranian instructions to the Shiite militias, against the background of secret agreements between Iran and the United States.
Since then, according to a number of local reports, Shiite militias have carried out 6 attacks against American basses, for which no group has claimed credit and the Americans have not reported. Although we assess there were airstrikes, US Central Command has not officially confirmed them, as it did before to February 20.
(July 1) The “Iraqi Militia Association” threatened to renew its attacks on American bases in Iraq and Syria if Israel launches an all-out war on Lebanon.
During the past week (July 1-7) the Islamic resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 2 attacks against Israel. There have been no indications of attacks.
Yemen – Houthi-land:
During the past week, coalition forces managed to strike 4 explosive boats and 3 radar arrays which posed an immediate threat to the freedom of movement in international waters.
Since October 2023, there have been 183 Houthi attacks against Israel, the United States and other targets.
