By: Tal Beeri & Boaz Shapira
Over the last few months, and especially since the Israeli attack on the port of Hodeida (July 20, 2024), there have been several unverified reports claiming that Houthi forces have begun to arrive in Syria as part of Iran’s preparations for a broad campaign against Israel.
According to numerous sources, the Houthis arrive in Syria in groups of several dozen over many months, primarily via Iran, Iraq, and Jordan. It appears that in most cases, Houthi operatives infiltrate Syria under civilian cover and are subsequently dispatched to Damascus and southern Syria. Among other things, we know that the operatives use student status and the appearance of pilgrims visiting Shi’a-related holy places as cover, a practice we are familiar with from the Iranian corridor to Syria.
In our assessment, there is a Houthi presence in Syria. We do not know the magnitude of this presence. According to various reports, the Houthi force in Syria currently numbers several thousand fighters. Some are mainly trained in the operation of UAVs and ballistic missiles. We are unable to confirm this.
In Syria, the Houthis have a formal military representation. Colonel Sharaf al-Mawri is the Houthi military attaché in Syria. The Syrians regularly invite Al Mawri to formal military events and he maintains regular contact with Syrian security officials.
In our assessment, one of Al-Mawri’s missions is to coordinate Houthi activity on Syrian soil vis-à-vis the Iranians, Hezbollah, and the Syrian regime.
Al-Thaala Airport near Sweida, in southwestern Syria, and Khalkhalah Airport, about 40 km north of Sweida, were mentioned in several reports as sites where Houthi operatives are present.
In recent months, Houthi channels have released numerous documents from exercises that simulated raids and ground attacks on Israel. Add to this the numerous calls from Houthi leaders for Saudi Arabia and Jordan to permit land passage for Houthi forces, enabling them to engage Israel directly, along with the Houthi threats of a “ground surprise.”
In other words, the presence of Houthi operatives in southern Syria, along with combatants from other Shiite militias, could signal a concrete threat in the form of a ground-specific or extensive invasion of Israel’s territory in the Golan Heights. This is in addition to the launching of UAVs, missiles, etc. by Houthi operatives from Syrian soil against Israel.
Today, the IRGC deploys tens of thousands of Shiite militia operatives throughout Syria. Alongside them, there is a Houthi presence in Syria. At this stage, we are uncertain about the extent of this presence and its operational potential for facilitating Houthi activity from Syrian territory against Israel.
According to our assessment, if an all-out war breaks out between Hezbollah and Israel, Syria in general and southern Syria in particular will constitute a central arena from which Shiite militia operatives will operate. If Houthi operatives are indeed present in Syria and have operational potential, they may join the militia operatives.
Even without an all-out war, the Houthis might attempt to conduct operations against Israel from Syrian territory.
