Syria’s new regime continues to face relentless challenges.
After the clashes in the Alawite coastal region seemed to subside, fighting reignited on the Lebanese border over the past two days. A few weeks ago, the new Syrian regime engaged in several days of combat against Hezbollah and smuggling gangs affiliated with it along the Lebanese border. These clashes erupted as the regime worked to tighten its grip in the border area and stop smuggling operations. The fighting, centered around the town of Qusayr and its surroundings, lasted several days and resulted in dozens of casualties.
The latest clashes started after several regime personnel were killed, reportedly at the hands of Hezbollah supporters. Some accounts claim they were killed on Syrian soil, and their bodies were taken to Lebanon, while others suggest they were ambushed in Lebanon after crossing into Qusayr.
The escalating conflict involved rocket and artillery fire, as well as anti-tank missile attacks, prompting both sides to deploy reinforcements. Several reports indicated that regime forces took over the town of Hawsh al-Sayyid Ali in Syria, pushing out Hezbollah supporters.
Amid the intensifying battles, Lebanon army’s new commander ordered his forces to intervene and defend Lebanese territory. As a result, the Lebanese Army shelled targets in Syria, with an unprecedented airstrike conducted by the Lebanese Air Force.
This intervention effectively transforms the conflict into a direct confrontation between Lebanon and Syria. A month ago, we published a comprehensive report reviewing the Lebanese Army and its capabilities, which are relevant in the context of the fighting against Syria.
On March 17, Syria and Lebanon’s foreign ministers agreed to work toward lowering the tension between the countries. However, as of this writing, the situation remains unclear. Given Hezbollah’s continued efforts to maintain its smuggling operations along the border, we assess that more such clashes are likely to occur in the future.
As we have noted in the past, the Lebanon-Syria border, and specifically the Qusayr area, holds strategic importance for Hezbollah’s smuggling network. This network, which includes numerous illegal border crossings and underground tunnels, is crucial to the Hezbollah’s military and economic buildup. Under Assad’s rule, the Syrian border was one of Hezbollah’s primary routes for smuggling weapons, narcotics, personnel, and more. The new Syrian regime’s ongoing efforts to tighten its control over the border areas and disrupt smuggling activities will likely hinder Hezbollah’s operations in the foreseeable future.
It is also worth noting, that this escalation unfolds against the backdrop of the IDF operations targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon, including strikes in the Beqaa Valley. Given the current situation, Hezbollah may find it difficult to divert significant reinforcements to the Syrian border. Indeed, the group has so far denied any involvement in the clashes around Qusayr.
