But Israel’s northern border remains unstable
To understand Hezbollah’s current situation in Lebanon, one must simultaneously hold in mind two observations that appear, at first glance, to contradict one another.
On the one hand, the organisation is far from the level of power it possessed on the eve of the current war in 2023. It has lost many operatives; a significant portion of its infrastructure in southern Lebanon has been damaged; the IDF is applying sustained pressure; and the immediate threat to northern Israeli communities has changed.
On the other hand, Hezbollah has not been defeated. It is still firing at Israel, continues to use drones and rockets, opposes any direct diplomatic process between Israel and Lebanon, and continues to enjoy some havens in which it can attempt to rebuild its strength, primarily in Beirut and the Beqaa Valley. From Hezbollah’s perspective, survival itself means victory, regardless of the cost. The question, therefore, is not whether Hezbollah has “won” or “lost” in absolute terms, but rather where it is managing to preserve its status and dominance, where its power has been damaged, and how all of this affects Israel’s security.
Militarily, Hezbollah has suffered a significant blow. According to estimates, the number of rockets in its possession has dropped to as few as 15,000 (and maybe less) from perhaps ten times that many in 2023, and since March 2 of this year, more than 2,600 operatives have been killed. Many commanders and key holders of essential expertise have been killed over the past two and a half years; smuggling routes have become more difficult to operate; and the Syrians are regularly intercepting smuggling attempts.
In addition, some 50 Shi’ite villages in southern Lebanon, which served as Hezbollah terrorist bases, were destroyed because of the organisation’s decision to hide weapons and build tunnels inside or beneath large numbers of homes. The operational significance is clear: Hezbollah today is not the Hezbollah of three years ago. Its Shi’ite base of support has been displaced and is frustrated, but it is still not taking to the streets in protest against the organisation.
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