Special Report: Is There a Historic Opportunity to Eliminate Hezbollah’s Military Power?

Executive Summary

The report analyzes Hezbollah, with a focus on its military status following the recent war in the north, and explores whether a historic opportunity now exists to disarm the organization. This report draws on open-source materials and independent analysis conducted by the Alma Center.

The main points are as follows:

1. Hezbollah’s Current Situation:

Severe damage to the organization’s leadership – elimination of senior commanders and casualties of approximately 15% of all operatives.

The Radwan Unit and the Nasser and Aziz geographical units were severely hit. The Radwan Unit has lost, at least temporarily, its operational capability to carry out its main mission of infiltrating the Galilee.

Hezbollah operatives have limited movement and activity along the contact line, but their presence in this area still exists.

Many underground infrastructures along the contact line in southern Lebanon were destroyed. However, many more underground infrastructures still exist south of the Litani River, north of the Litani River, and in the Beqaa Valley.

2. Rehabilitation Efforts:

Deep involvement of Iran in military and economic reconstruction.

An effort to rebuild the weapons arsenal through self-production capabilities and the smuggling of weapons, money, and gold.

Hezbollah continues to try to recover despite the challenges on the Syria-Lebanon border, the need to operate new smuggling routes, and Israeli pressure.

3. Internal Situation in the Organization and in Lebanon:

There is a crisis of confidence within Hezbollah and a very strong sense of intelligence penetration.

The Lebanese army is showing increased (apparent) presence and activity.

Other political elements in Lebanon are gaining courage, but it seems that Hezbollah still controls the local and electoral levels.

4. Ideology and Identity:

The core ideology of Hezbollah is “armed resistance” – this is a non-negotiable identity.

The organization is driven by honor, pride, and a deep belief in an armed struggle against Israel.

5. Situation Assessment:

Despite the severe damage it has sustained, Hezbollah is far from disappearing.

There is a risk of Hezbollah behaving like a “wounded animal” within Lebanon and of internal escalation in Lebanon.

Israel requires to be in a continuous state of confrontation, with an emphasis on strategic endurance.

The critical question is not whether a “historic opportunity” exists, but whether Israel has the patience and persistence to continue weakening Hezbollah until it loses relevance, and whether the state of Lebanon has the ability and will to confront Hezbollah.