By: Tal Beeri and Boaz Shapira.
Since the al-Sharaa regime’s takeover in Syria, we published several articles addressing the increasing Turkish involvement in the country and its possible implications for Israel.
Alongside economic and political aspects, Turkey’s military involvement in Syria stands out. Several reports were published indicating that Turkey has offered to assist the new regime in rebuilding, training, and arming the new Syrian army, and that the parties intend to sign extensive defense and procurement agreements.
Turkish Military Presence in Syrian Military Bases:
According to several reports, Turkey plans to establish multiple bases to serve the Turkish Air Force, utilizing the infrastructure of Syrian airports in the Palmyra region (Palmyra Airport and T4). Turkey reportedly aims to expand its ground and aerial activities in the country. For instance, a few weeks ago we reported that Turkey assisted in the rehabilitation and operation of Damascus International Airport. In addition, Turkey’s support for the SNA and the organizations that operate under its umbrella in northern Syria is well-known.
Subsequently, in recent days there were reports indicating that Turkey has transported troops and military equipment to the Minaq military airport in northern Syria, now operating in Turkish-Syrian collaboration. The airport is located approximately 35 km north of Aleppo and about 13 km south of the Turkish border. Various reports claim that Turkey has recently renovated and expanded the base, installing radars, air defense systems, and additional equipment to help Syria monitor and control its airspace.
This activity at the Minaq airport could potentially be the first step towards increasing Turkey’s direct military involvement on Syrian soil and may hint at Turkey’s long-term intentions in the region.
Turkish-Israeli Military Friction/Conflict (Emphasizing Aerial Aspect):
A scenario in which Turkish Air Force jets operate in Syrian airspace against Israeli Air Force jets is a possible one.
In this context, it should be noted that in recent weeks, several reports have emerged from Syria regarding aerial incidents that included friction between Israeli and Turkish air force planes. These incidents, while not confirmed by either side, could serve as further evidence of the threat Turkey poses to Israel.
Similar to the period when there was significant Russian deployment in Syria, the Turks, like the Russians then, could take a variety of retaliatory measures beyond dispatching their aircraft against Israeli planes, these actions could include providing the Syrians with advance intelligence on Israeli intentions, publicizing details of Israeli activities, and transferring advanced conventional weaponry to the Syrians (emphasizing air defense systems, missiles, UAVs, and more).
We estimate that Israel will know how to operate militarily in Syria as needed, even in the presence of Turkish forces, as it managed during the Russian presence. This might require Israel to invest in greater intelligence efforts to avoid friction with Turkish forces and demand enhanced risk management and readiness for potential Turkish responses. Perhaps the mutual security interests of both sides will outweigh the significant political tensions, and a military coordination mechanism, similar to the one established with the Russian forces present in Syria, might be created.
Undoubtedly, Turkish responses and actions will pose a significant challenge for Israel and may already present such a challenge, assuming aerial frictions have already occurred, as suggested by the aforementioned reports.
Israeli Airstrikes on Palmyra and T4 Airports:
During the nights of March 21 and March 24, the IDF attacked targets at the Palmyra and T4 airports and their surroundings. Some reports linked these strikes to Turkey’s desire to establish a presence in eastern Syria, but in our assessment, there is no connection between the two.
The IDF strikes are part of the ongoing effort to eliminate significant military capabilities remaining in Syria that could pose a threat to Israel and IDF operations.
Summary:
Israel must set the rules of the game in the region. Any threat to Israel’s security will be met with an independent Israeli response, and other “players” must take this into account. They, in turn, need to manage the risks concerning this Israeli principle.
