The Iranian Threat to U.S. Bases in the Middle East – Should Their Locations Be Reconsidered?

As the Middle East braces for an Israeli response to Iran’s October 1 missile onslaught on Israel, a wider American-led `bloc, made up of the United States Military in the Middle East and Sunni-Arab states, is watching closely, and preparing. Ahead of the next chapter in the Iranian – Israeli direct conflict, a senior former American military commander has proposed a major redeployment of U.S. bases in the region to make them less vulnerable to the Islamic Republic’s firepower.

On September 19, 2024, a new report by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) was published, presenting an in-depth analysis of the threat from Iran to U.S. bases in the Middle East.

The report, written by General Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie, former commander of the United States Military’s Central Command (CENTCOM), focuses on the threat arising from the strategic vulnerability of the current array of U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf region, and the urgent need for a major shift, in order to face the new threats from Iran.

The report emphasized that Iran’s advanced capabilities in ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs place the U.S. bases at severe risk during war.

The U.S. bases in the Middle East, such as Al-Udeid in Qatar, Al-Dhafra in the UAE, and bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, were originally built to confront different threats over the past decades, including the Soviet threat during the Cold War, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the fight against ISIS.

McKenzie argued that these bases are no longer suitable for the current central threat—Iran: “Our bases in the region, the Middle east are largely where they are as a legacy of past conflicts… However, things have changed and the priorities that informed the placement of those bases,” said Mckenzie.

Over the past decades, Iran has invested enormous funds and resources to develop ballistic missile, cruise missile, and UAV capabilities on a large scale, which pose a serious threat to its neighbors and to the American bases in the region. This is despite the fact that Iran lacks a real air force and a conventional army with significant capabilities.

Iran, which has emphasized its offensive capabilities in recent years, not only increased the number of missiles and UAV systems in its arsenal but also improved their accuracy and extended their range. The result is that the danger of a massive attack on the U.S. bases, particularly those close to Iran, is a tangible and clear threat.

McKenzie warned that Iran’s advanced strike capabilities allow it to shower American and regional bases with a large number of missiles and UAVs, which could overwhelm the U.S. air defense systems and severely damage vital infrastructure. Even though the U.S. operates advanced defense systems like the Patriot and the THAAD system, McKenzie stated that in the case of a large-scale attack, they may be overwhelmed and would not be able to defend all bases in the area.

Moreover, the geographical location of the bases, being too close to Iran, grants the Iranians a significant advantage, as they can launch attacks quickly and with relative ease. This shortens the warning time for U.S. forces and creates a situation where these bases are particularly vulnerable.

As part of these threats, McKenzie mentioned the extensive Iranian attack on Israel in April 2024, where Iran attempted to strike critical targets in Israel using about 300 missiles and drones. Although the attack failed mainly due to joint Israeli and U.S. defenses, the attack served as a warning sign to the entire region regarding Iran’s ability to carry out a large-scale attack.

Another confirmation of this came in the additional attack against Israel by Iran in October 2024, where Iran launched around 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli territory.

In confronting the Iranian threat, McKenzie offered a series of strategic steps aimed at ensuring the U.S.’s ability to protect its military assets and deter Iran from further aggressive actions.

The main solution McKenzie proposed is to move U.S. bases further west in the Middle East, further away from the source of Iranian threats. He suggested developing a flexible base network that includes Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, Egypt, and Israel. These bases would be located further from the range of Iran’s short-range missiles, making it harder for Iran to strike them through a critical mass of attacks, even if they would still be within striking distance.

“How you best deter Iran is by demonstrating your commitment to being able to fight them in a decisive way should major theater war occur. A possibility we certainly hope will not happen. But if it does happen, we’re going to need to be able to take our fighters and our bombers to areas where the Iranians have a much harder problem finding you. And that would be bases in the west of the region, bases in the west of Saudi Arabia, potentially further bases in Oman, potential bases in Jordan, and potentially bases in Egypt, and of course, newly possible to us, potentially bases in Israel,” said Mckenzie.

This redeployment would give the U.S. longer warning times in the event of an attack and would allow for more effective planning of counterattacks, according to McKenzie. Additionally, the threat to the bases themselves would decrease, as Iran’s long-range ballistic missiles are fewer compared to the many short-range ballistic missiles in Iran’s arsenal.

In addition to dispersing the bases, McKenzie emphasizes the importance of cooperation with Arab states and Israel to improve the region’s air and missile defense systems. According to him, the sharing of information and connectivity between the various countries in CENTCOM must be improved, which will increase the efficiency of their defense systems against attacks from Iran.

Israel’s joining of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) in 2021 created a new opportunity for air defense cooperation between Israel and Arab states. According to McKenzie, the shared threat from Iran could serve as a catalyst for increasing military cooperation between Israel and its Arab neighbors.

The ability to establish air bases in Israel itself forms the second component of McKenzie’s plan.

After Israel joined U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), closer cooperation with Israel in the regional base structure became possible. McKenzie noted that Israel could serve as a potential backup base for U.S. forces in the Middle East in the event of a war with Iran. Israel’s advanced defense systems, along with its geographical location, make it a key player in the American basing strategy in the Middle East.

The third component is increasing cooperation between all the countries belonging to CENTCOM.

According to McKenzie, “The third component to the basing solution also involves Israel, and it is the growing  normalization of ties with Arab states. This was made diplomatically possible by the signing  of the Abraham Accords in 2020. It was made operationally feasible by the entry of Israel into the CENTCOM AOR [Area of Responsibility]. It was further underwritten by Iranian malign behavior which has finally convinced the Gulf States that a collective approach to air and missile defense is necessary and practicable, and achievable without sacrificing sovereignty. In 2021 and 2022, I convened Chiefs of Defense meetings that included key Arab military leaders, as well as the Israeli Chief of Staff. At these meetings, it became clear that the threat of Iranian missiles and drones were  existential to the Gulf State, as well as Israel. Cooperation in the domain of air and missile  defense is easier than ground or naval cooperation, because no forces have to be stationed  abroad (or accepted into one’s own country). It is largely a matter of sharing tactics,  techniques and procedures, and agreeing what sensor information to share, and how to share it. The United States still acts as the honest broker in this arrangement. It remains the indispensable nation.”

“I would argue that the event that took place on April 13 of this year, in the massive Iranian attack on Israel, is a pattern that confirms much of what we have just discussed,” he added.

Despite the need to move most forces westward, McKenzie emphasizes that this does not mean abandoning the existing bases completely. He highlights the importance of bases like Al-Udeid in Qatar and Al-Dhafra in the UAE, which provide security to the U.S.’s regional partners, but says that the military platform itself should be more flexible and ready for quick change according to developments on the ground.

When asked by the Alma Center about Al-Udeid base in Qatar and Qatar’s problematic role in the region, McKenzie noted that the decision on whether to continue operating the base there is a political one, not military, but clarified that the base is still an important asset in the regional base structure from an American perspective.

There is a military rationale for remaining in Qatar, but there is also justification for considering relocating combat forces out of this area in the event of a war with Iran, McKenzie noted in his response.

He emphasized that Qatar has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in upgrading the Al-Udeid base, strengthening its status as an important hub for U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf.

According to McKenzie, the time for an American redeployment is now, to improve operational readiness and deterrence against Iran and to protect American interests in the region.

The steps he outlines involve not only the necessary strategic adaptation to current military threats, but also strengthening regional alliances and partnerships designed to deter Iran from direct aggressive actions. However, McKenzie acknowledged that it is doubtful whether this plan will impact the activities of Iran’s broader Shia axis and its proxies throughout the Middle East, such as Hezbollah and the Shia militias in several countries in the region.