The 8th week of the IDF’s ground maneuver in southern Lebanon:
This past week, efforts for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah continued with the visit of Amos Hochstein, the American envoy to the Middle East, to Lebanon and Israel.
The IDF continued its ground and air operations to neutralize and destroy Hezbollah terrorist targets throughout Lebanon, with an emphasis on multiple airstrikes in the Dahieh, a key Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut. Among the targets attacked were Hezbollah’s headquarters, production sites, weapons depots, and terrorist infrastructure. Additionally, the area of Tyre witnessed numerous attacks on Hezbollah’s headquarters, intelligence infrastructure, weapons depots, an observation post, and buildings.
The IDF continues to make great efforts to minimize harm to civilians in Lebanon and operates through many channels to issue advance warnings before attacks and the evacuation of residents from dangerous areas.
In response to the escalating initiatives for a ceasefire and the endeavor to cultivate awareness and secure a semblance of victory prior to the agreement’s ratification, Hezbollah markedly intensified its attacks this week, executing 295 attacks compared to 191 the preceding week (it is important to note that this figure pertains to the number of attacks, not the quantity of missiles, rockets, and UAVs deployed).
Yesterday, November 24, there were 79 attacks, marking the highest daily attack count since the start of the war. The attacks involved firing more than 240 missiles and rockets at communities in northern Israel. Additionally, Hezbollah launched five barrages of missiles and rockets into central Israel. Hezbollah, as noted by Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem in his speech this week, carried out the attacks on the Tel Aviv area under the principle that “When Beirut is under attack by the enemy, the response must be in Tel Aviv.” The IDF has been attacking Hezbollah targets in Beirut since the end of September 2024, where Hezbollah has established terrorist infrastructure in the heart of a civilian population for years.
This past week there was an increase in Hezbollah’s attacks against IDF forces in Lebanon and against communities and areas near the border (up to 5 kilometers). Most of Hezbollah’s attacks are focused on this area. Hezbollah uses rockets, anti-tank missiles, UAVs, and infantry weapons to carry out its attacks against IDF forces in Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s main weapon is rocket fire, with 238 attacks in the past week. Hezbollah increased its use of anti-tank missiles this past week, with a total of 16 incidents, most of them against IDF forces in Lebanon, and one incident of anti-tank fire at the village of Shtula (November 24—the missile hit an egg sorting center). This compares with three incidents of anti-tank fire in the previous week.
Hezbollah openly declares its intention to harm Israel’s civilian areas and even boasts of it in its official media. Hezbollah presents its attacks as “successes” in the struggle against Israel, emphasizing the damage to infrastructure, property, and the civilian population. Israel suffered two civilian deaths, dozens of injuries, severe property damage, and severe disruption of civilian life in the past week.
Hezbollah attacks also cause damage to UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon. Over the past week, UNIFIL soldiers and infrastructure have been injured and damaged in three separate incidents.
Hezbollah is simultaneously launching a propaganda conscious-perception campaign to paint a picture of victory and exalt its accomplishments. The campaign did not stick to facts and reality, to say the least. Hezbollah falsely claimed to have shot down four Israeli UAVs in Lebanese airspace just this week, despite not having shot down a single UAV. This is in addition to the 30 attacks for which Hezbollah claimed responsibility, but there was no confirmation that they occurred. Examples of attacks that did not had any indications include the launch of UAVs and a cruise missile at the Ashdod naval base and the Hazor base, the launch of missiles at the Palmachim base, and the launch of UAVs at a target in Tel Aviv, all of which, according to Hezbollah, hit their targets.
In our assessment, the propaganda campaign will only intensify the day after the end of the war, with the main motifs, messages, and narratives being that Hezbollah has won, glorifying the resistance, highlighting the threat to Israel, and restoring operational control.
In parallel with Hezbollah’s military reconstruction efforts and conscious-perception efforts, it continues to invest efforts to continue its civilian support for its Shiite base. The focus of this activity is on displaced persons from the southern suburbs of Beirut, southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, which are scattered in several areas of Lebanon. Senior Hezbollah officials, as well as Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem, refer extensively to the issue of displaced persons in Lebanon and repeat messages of rehabilitation and promise of compensation.
Hezbollah funds numerous DP (displaced persons) centers through a variety of institutions and associations. Additionally, Hezbollah launched the ” Samidoun” (“Resilience”) platform last week, aiming to offer both material and financial support to its supporters who have lost their homes. Financial assistance ranges from $300 to $400 per family, and material assistance includes food and supplies of various products, such as winter supplies and the like.
The Lebanese arena:
War data:
During the past week, 2 civilians and 4 soldiers were killed in Hezbollah attacks. So far, 45 Israeli civilians and 79 IDF soldiers have been killed in the fighting against Hezbollah in the northern arena, a total of 124 people.
In Israel, the government evacuated 43 communities located up to five kilometers from the Lebanese border. A total of about 68,000 citizens. To them were added several thousand more who decided to evacuate independently. It should be noted that some of the Israeli communities have not been fully evacuated and there is a civilian presence there (agriculture and industry).
Since the beginning of the war, 5,132 attacks have been carried out in the northern arena, the vast majority of which were carried out by Hezbollah.
In the past month (19.10-19.11) there has been a decrease in the number of rockets and missiles fired at the Haifa and the Krayot area, along with an increase in UAV incidents compared to the previous month (19.9-19.10). During those periods, the number of attacks on the area south of Haifa (Hadera, Binyamina, Caesarea and Gush Dan – Tel Aviv Metropolitan Area) remained the same. For further reading, see the article “Monthly Analysis of Attacks from Lebanon to the Haifa Area and to the South”.
Recently, it seems that Hezbollah has been increasing its use of heavier rockets and missiles in the Haifa and Krayot areas to etch conscious perception and achieve images of victory by inflicting more damage (in property and lives). This is against the background of the ceasefire negotiations and the publication of an agreement. See the article detailing nine types of rockets and missiles used by Hezbollah.
Prominent launching and shooting incidents against Israel
(November 18) There were 36 attacks against Israel from Lebanon, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 25 of the attacks. About 30 projectiles were fired at the city of Nahariya, and in another attack in the Ma’alot area, one civilian was wounded. Hezbollah fired about five rockets at the Arab city of Shefar’am (most of the population is Muslim). One of the rockets hit a residential building directly, killing one civilian and wounding dozens of others, including a woman and a 4-year-old child who are in serious condition. In another attack, Hezbollah fired one missile at the Tel Aviv area. The missile was intercepted, and its parts fell on a building in the city of Ramat Gan, severely damaging it and causing a fire.
(November 19) There were 39 attacks against Israel from Lebanon, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 29 of the attacks. Hezbollah launched 5 projectiles to the Herzliya area, 10 to the Meron area, and another 25 to the city of Karmiel. Hezbollah continues to attack civilian targets in Israel and on the same day claimed responsibility for direct fire at the communities of Kiryat Shmona, Sasa, Ma’a lot-Tarshiha, Manara, Yiron, Kfar Blum, Safed, Malkiya, Goren and Avivim.
(November 20) There were 29 attacks against Israel from Lebanon, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 21 of the attacks. Hezbollah launched suicide UAVs into the area of Nahariya and the Western Galilee, and fired rockets at the city of Kiryat Shmona, which directly hit a residential building in the city (photo above). In addition, Hezbollah launched two barrages of rockets at the cities of Acre and Nahariya, injuring two civilians. One rocket hit a kindergarten, there were no casualties.
(November 21) There were 30 attacks against Israel from Lebanon, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 26 of the attacks. Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets at the city of Nahariya. One rocket hit a playground, killing one civilian and wounding two others. This is the fourth civilian killed in the past month in the city of Nahariya because of Hezbollah attacks.
(November 22) There were 46 attacks against Israel from Lebanon, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 34 of the attacks. Hezbollah fired about 10 rockets and missiles at Haifa, about 20 rockets and missiles at the Western Galilee, and about 5 more rockets and missiles at the city of Nahariya.
(November 23) There were 36 attacks against Israel from Lebanon, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 26 of the attacks. Attacks were carried out on communities near the border with Lebanon and on more distant cities such as Haifa and Hazor HaGlilit.
(November 24) There were 79 attacks against Israel from Lebanon, the highest number of daily attacks since the beginning of the war, of which Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 42 of the attacks. Communities and cities far from the border in northern Israel that are not considered evacuated areas were the targets of the majority of the attacks. The attacks included more than 200 rockets and missiles. Additionally, they carried out five rocket barrages towards central Israel, launching a total of 18 rockets and missiles. During the day, rockets and missiles caused extensive damage to property, including a residential building and playground in Nahariya, a factory in Ma’alot, a residential building in Haifa, and houses and cars in Rinatya and Petah Tikva (central Israel).
Hezbollah and other organization casualties
Hezbollah stopped regularly publicizing its casualties. However, the social networks publish announcements about funerals of operatives killed. Based on reports on social media, we identified at least 143 Hezbollah operatives who were killed this past week. However, the number of casualties is presumably higher.
As of October 8, 2023, about 2,043 Hezbollah operatives that we managed to document were killed. Most of the operatives killed originated south of the Litani River.
This week, one Amal operative was killed. According to reports in Lebanon, since the beginning of the war, 109 operatives of other organizations in Lebanon have been killed, including Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Amal Movement, Al-Jama’ah al-Salamiya (Al-Fajr), the Lebanese Resistance Brigades, Fatah and the Democratic Front.
Eliminations of senior Hezbollah figures
This week, four senior Hezbollah commanders were eliminated, including the commander of the medium-range rocket system, the commander of operations, the commander of Hezbollah’s coastal anti-tank system, and the commander of the Al-Khiam sector.
Local reports indicate that on November 23, an attack occurred in Beirut against Muhammad Ali Haidar, a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council and the current de facto leader of Hezbollah’s military activity. The attempt to eliminate him apparently failed.
As of October 8, 2023, 174 senior Hezbollah operatives have been eliminated. The most senior is Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. In addition, among the senior figures killed were Jihad Council members Fouad Shakar (head of the strategic divisions), Ibrahim Aqil (head of the operations division), Ali Karki (commander of the Southern Front), Suheil Hussein Husseini (head of the headquarters), and Hashem Safieddine (Nasrallah’s intended successor).
- 7 Senior Hezbollah leaders (4% of those eliminated)
- 23.7% of those eliminated, a total of 41, belonged to the Radwan unit, including acting unit commanders Wassam al-Tawil (January 2024), Ahmad Mahmoud Wahbi (September 2024) and deputy unit commander Mustafa Ahmad Shehadi (October 2024).
- 30.1%, a total of 53 of the geographic units (Southern Front), with an emphasis on the Nasser unit, including unit commander Haj Abu Taleb and Aziz unit commander Ahmad Naama Nasser. The emphasis in the Radwan unit and in the geographical units was placed on eliminating commanders of sectors (equivalent to brigade commanders) and commanders in professional formations (rockets/anti-tanks, etc.).
- 31, constituting 17.9%, commanders of various ranks killed in the ground maneuvers in southern Lebanon.
- 13, constituting 7.5%, are operatives in Hezbollah headquarters.
- 7 senior operatives from the air unit, including the unit commander, were eliminated.
- 3 others from Hezbollah’s air defense system.
- Two senior operatives and the commander of Hezbollah’s weapons transfer unit from Syria to Lebanon (Unit 4400).
- An operative in the engineering unit and a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council.
- 2.9% of those eliminated, a total of 5, constituted knowledge centers in the fields of research/development/production of weapons and combat support technology.
- 6.4%, 11 senior operatives from the rocket missile array, including the unit commander and the unit commander in southern Lebanon.
Prominent airstrikes in Lebanon
(November 21/22/23/24) The IDF carried out several attacks against Hezbollah terrorist targets in the Dahieh, a key Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut. The targets attacked were Hezbollah’s headquarters, production sites, weapons depots, and terrorist infrastructures established by Hezbollah over the years in the heart of the civilian population in Beirut.
(November 22) A series of attacks were carried out in the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah terrorist targets, including headquarters, intelligence infrastructure, weapons depots, an observation post and military buildings. Many of the military assets that were attacked belonged to Hezbollah’s Aziz unit, which is responsible for firing from southwest Lebanon into Israeli territory and other terrorist activities in the area.
Prior to all the above attacks, early warnings and alerts were issued for the evacuation of the population in the area.
(November 23) In the early hours of the morning, an eight-story building around al-Nuwairi (al-Basta al-Foqa) in Beirut was attacked from the air. The intention of the attack was an attempt to eliminate Muhammad Ali Haidar, a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, who is currently de facto responsible for Hezbollah’s military activity after the elimination of Fuad Shachar, Ibrahim Aqil and Ali Karki. Haidar was born on November 25, 1959, in the village of Qabrikha, Nabatiyeh Province. Haidar was a close advisor to Nasrallah and was responsible, among other things, for coordinating Hezbollah’s military activity in Yemen and Iraq and for relations with the Houthis and the Shiite militias. Other reports link him to the Captagon narcotic industry, which is a central component of Hezbollah’s economy. Before he was appointed to the Islamic Jihad Council, he was a member of parliament representing Hezbollah. During his years in Hezbollah, before he was elected to parliament, he held many positions. Among other things, he was deputy head of the Executive Council and director of Al-Manar. The attack aimed at eliminating him apparently failed. In addition to Haidar, there are two other senior living figures who were members of the Jihad Council before the war: Talal Hamiya and Khader Yusuf Nader.
(November 23) The IDF attacked the Jusiyah crossing once again. The Jusiyah crossing connects the town of Jusiyah, in the Al-Qusayr region, in western Homs, Syria, with the Al-Beqaa area in Lebanon. Through this passage, a main road connects the two countries. The crossing allows easy access to and from the city of Homs. The city of Homs and the surrounding area constitute a central geographical anchor of the Iranian land corridor. The Jusiyah crossing was closed at the end of 2012 after Syrian opposition forces took control of the town of Al-Qusayr. During 2013, the Syrian regime, with the support of Hezbollah, managed to take back control of Al-Qusayr and the Jusiyah border crossing returned to the control of the Syrian regime. The crossing remained closed for about five years, during which Hezbollah used it as a military post and prevented commercial and civilian traffic. Hezbollah has turned the Jusiyah crossing into a central route for the smuggling of weapons, equipment and merchandise. The crossing officially opened again in 2017. We are uncertain, to put it mildly, that any entity other than Israel can effectively supervise and restrict Hezbollah’s transfer of weaponry to Lebanon for rehabilitation and strengthening purposes.
(November 24) 12 Hezbollah headquarters were attacked in the Dahieh, a key Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut, including the headquarters of the Intelligence Headquarters, the Shore Missile Unit, and Unit 4400, which is responsible for smuggling weapons from Iran through Syria to Lebanon.
Hezbollah – General:
(November 20) Speech by Naim Qassem, Secretary General of Hezbollah
Qassem refers to the elimination of Muhammad Afif, Hezbollah’s chief spokesperson, and notes that an Israeli attack on Beirut will be met with an attack in the heart of Tel Aviv.
Qassem notes that they (Hezbollah) are among the few who support Gaza, along with Iraq, Yemen and Iran, while the rest of the world watches in inaction.
According to him, Hezbollah had previously agreed to Biden and Macron’s ceasefire proposal that would end the war, but then Israel eliminated Nasrallah. The elimination caused a crisis in Hezbollah, but he claimed that they managed to recover after 10 days.
He also noted that Hezbollah’s fight against IDF forces in Lebanon is not to prevent its advance, but to resist wherever it goes. They can wage a protracted war. Hezbollah’s achievements are not in repelling IDF forces, but in opposing it and in confrontations with it that cause the IDF to suffer losses. “Israel controls Lebanon’s airspace, but we will continue to fight, and in the end the decision is on the ground, whether in ground confrontations or by firing rockets deep into Israel.”
Speaking about the use of guided missiles “from Maroun al-Ras to Haifa,” Qassem stressed that “rocket and UAV launches continue at a high rate deep inside Israel, which is part of Hezbollah’s strategy in response to Israeli attacks.”
Regarding the proposal for a ceasefire presented by Amos Hochstein (who on the day of the speech left Lebanon after talks on the subject) Qassem stated: “We received the document that discussed the negotiations, studied it and commented on it, we received a proposal from America for a ceasefire and submitted our comments on it.” Qassem noted that Hezbollah would approve the negotiations under two conditions: first, a complete cessation of aggression, and second, the preservation of Lebanese sovereignty.
Qassem turned to the displaced people and said, “We appreciate your sacrifices, and we are doing what we can, and we call on you to be patient.” He also noted that after the end of the war, Hezbollah would take part in the election of a president for Lebanon and would cooperate with the political forces in Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s Shiite base is a captive audience. The Shi’ite base and Hezbollah operatives are the product of Hezbollah’s independent education system, which sanctifies the culture of death, and in which more than 90 percent of the subjects deal with jihad, martyrdom and Shi’ite religious ideology.
Hezbollah’s civilian activity:
Hezbollah continues to invest efforts to continue its social activities vis-à-vis its supporters. It is evident that the focus of the activity is on those displaced from the southern suburbs of Beirut, southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, which are scattered in several areas in Lebanon.
Senior Hezbollah officials, as well as Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem, refer extensively to the issue of displaced persons in Lebanon and repeat messages of rehabilitation and compensation.
This past week Hezbollah launched the ” Samidoun” platform, whose purpose is to provide material and financial support to its supporters who have been uprooted from their homes. Financial assistance ranges from $300 to $400 per family, and the material assistance is food and supplies of various products.
In addition, there are 154 displaced persons centers in Beirut that host about 11,000 displaced families from southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley and the southern Dahieh. These centers are funded by many institutions and associations on behalf of Hezbollah. In these centers, the displaced receive food supplies, winter supplies, and more.
Documentation of weapons systems used by Hezbollah:
Various publications in recent days have presented several interesting weapons systems used by Hezbollah. These include the first documented launch of an Iranian cruise missile, North Korean-made anti-aircraft missiles, and several other weapon systems. All of this allows for a better understanding of the sources of Hezbollah’s force buildup in recent years. Read more: A review of the documentation of weapons systems used by Hezbollah in recent days.
Lebanon – General:
(November 19) Amos Hochstein, the American envoy to the Middle East, arrived in Beirut for a round of meetings on the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
(November 23) According to the representative of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Syria (UNHCR), some of the Lebanese who fled to Syria in light of the war between Israel and Hezbollah have begun to return to Lebanon due to their difficult conditions in Syria.
(November 22) Riots broke out between Christians and Shiites in Beirut’s Ain Ramana neighborhood, which is a predominantly Christian area. Following the relocation of Shiites from the Dahieh to this area, riots and violence erupted, with Christians attacking the Shiites.
(November 23) The Lebanese Ministry of Health announced that the death toll in Lebanon since October 8, 2023, stands at 3,670 fatalities and 15,413 injuries. This announcement does not distinguish between Hezbollah and other organization combatants and the civilians injured or killed. The absolute majority of those killed and wounded were Hezbollah operatives.
(November 24) Due to the conditions of the war, the Lebanese government has decided to cancel frontal classes in all schools, institutes, and universities, both public and private, in the capital, Beirut, and its surrounding areas, until the end of the year, and to replace them with distance learning.
UNIFIL:
(November 19) Hezbollah launched a rocket that wounded 4 UNIFIL soldiers at the UNIFIL base in Ramiya, southern Lebanon, 5 km south of the launch area. The rocket, which misfired, was launched yesterday as part of a barrage launched by Hezbollah toward the Upper Galilee. UNIFIL did not place direct blame on Hezbollah, stating that “apparently, non-state elements in Lebanon” launched the rocket. Five rockets struck the maintenance workshop at UNIFIL’s Western Sector headquarters in Shema in another incident. There were no casualties.
The area where the rocket was launched (north of Al-Mansouri) was in the past and is known to be a closed Hezbollah military zone. Watch the video describing the incident:
In another incident on the same day, a UNIFIL patrol passed on a road northeast of the village of Khirbet Salem, and an “armed man” opened fire directly at the UNIFIL soldiers, who were not injured. In this case, too, UNIFIL refrained from explicitly naming Hezbollah.
(November 19) Argentina announced that its soldiers would leave the UNIFIL contingent in southern Lebanon and return to their country, after UNIFIL blamed Israel for several attacks on its forces.
(November 22) A UNIFIL post was hit in the Chema area in southern Lebanon, following several launches carried out by Hezbollah from the Deir Qanoun area in southern Lebanon. As a result of the attack, several UNIFIL soldiers stationed at the post were injured.
The Syrian arena:
(November 20) Reports emerged of an attack on the Syrian city of Palmyra in the Syrian desert, where there is an Iranian presence. Dozens of casualties reported. According to reports, weapons and ammunition depots belonging to Hezbollah and pro-Iranian militias were attacked. See the article on the subject: The Land Weapons Corridor in Syria: From the Main Entrance Gate (Albu Kamal) to the Main Exit Gate (Al-Qusayr).
Syria General
(November 18) A new Russian observation post was set up at Tel al-Hara.
(November 21) The new Italian ambassador, Stefano Ravagnan, appointed as a special envoy to Syria on behalf of the European Union, arrived in Damascus and began his role as ambassador about four months after his government announced his appointment. Italy is the first G7 country to send an ambassador to Syria since 2013.
(November 23) The new South African ambassador, Ashraf Yusuf Suleiman, presented his Letter of credence to President Assad.
(November 24) According to the governor of Damascus province, the number of Lebanese refugees who entered Syria through the Masnaa crossing has reached 250,000. More than a tenth of them were accommodated in hotels in the Saida Zeinab area.
Shiite Axis – General
Attacks on U.S. forces:
(November 21, 19) Attacks were carried out against the American base in the “CONCO” gas field in Syria.
(November 23) according to official Pentagon data, Shiite militias launched 206 attacks on US forces in the Middle East between the start of the Gaza war and November 21, 2024 (attacks on US forces started on October 18, 2023): 125 in Syria, 79 in Iraq, and 2 in Jordan.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq:
During the past week (November 18-24), the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for six UAV attacks against targets throughout Israel. The IDF intercepted two UAVs launched from Iraq. In the rest of the incidents, no additional indications were reported. This is a relatively low number of weekly attacks compared to previous weeks.
Since the 2nd. November 2023, when the Islamic resistance in Iraq began carrying out attacks against Israel, until November 17, 2024, they assumed responsibility for 316 attacks against Israel . 94 of them actually reached Israeli territory (intercepted or fell in open areas).
Since October 2024, there has been a significant increase in the number of Islamic Resistance in Iraq claiming responsibility for attacks against Israel. At the same time, in the past six months there has been a general upward trend in the percentage of attacks that succeed in reaching Israeli territory.
Yemen – Houthi-land:
(November 19) The Houthis claimed responsibility for launching several ballistic missiles toward the “Anadolu S” ship in the Red Sea. At least one missile was reported to have exploded near the ship, but no damage or casualties were reported.
(November 21) A missile launched by Houthi forces from Yemen into southern Israel was intercepted.
Since October 2023, there have been 228 Houthi attacks against Israel, the United States and other targets.
