The Northern Arena and the Shiite Axis – Weekly Review of Events and Key Data (6 -12 Jan.)

The Lebanese Arena

The leadership crisis in Lebanon has come to an end. On January 9, the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, Joseph Aoun, was elected as Lebanon’s new president. The crisis, which lasted for two years, two months, and nine days, has finally been resolved. Following the election of the president, a new prime minister, Nawaf Salam, was also appointed (see details below). It should be noted that neither Joseph Aoun nor Nawaf Salam were the preferred candidates of Hezbollah and Amal.

IDF Activity in Lebanon:

The IDF conducted multiple airstrikes in southern Lebanon over the past week to eliminate the threat. These strikes included targeting terrorists in Tir Daba who were loading weapons into a vehicle, targeting terrorists in Kunin, and the detection and thwarting of three suspects who approached the border in the Har Dov area. Furthermore, several Hezbollah terrorist targets in Lebanon were struck on January 12, this came after the Lebanese Army was notified about these targets, yet it did not take action to neutralize them. Some of the targets struck were loaded rocket launchers, as well as routes along the Syria-Lebanon border used by Hezbollah for weapon smuggling.

The IDF continues to act against Hezbollah’s terror infrastructures in southern Lebanon while maintaining the terms of the ceasefire. In recent weeks, the forces located a multi-barreled rocket launcher, hundreds of mortar shells, IEDs, RPG rifles, and anti-tank firing positions.

(January 8) According to a report in the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, the American envoy Amos Hochstein’s plan for the withdrawal of IDF forces in southern Lebanon till January 26 is divided into three stages: in the first five days Israel will withdraw from the western sector between Ras al-Naqoura and Ramish, in the next five days Israel will withdraw from the central sector between Rmeish and Mays al-Jabal, and in the last five days Israel will withdraw from the eastern sector between Miss al-Jabal and Shebaa.

According to reports in Lebanon, Israel has begun to withdraw from the western sector and the Lebanese army has deployed in the cities of Ras al-Naqoura, Tir Harfa, Beit Leef, Bint Jbeil, Shema, Al-Khiam, Aalma El Chaeb, Wadi Ain al-Zarqa, Btaichiye and Ramiya. In addition, the Lebanese army set up a checkpoint at the junction of the villages of Ita a-Sha’ab – Ramiya – Qaouzah – about 1.4 km from the border with Israel and another checkpoint on the western outskirts of the Marwahin district.

Hezbollah – General:

The senior figure of Hezbollah’s Sidon sector, Sheikh Zayed Daher, met with a delegation from the head of the Palestinian terrorist organization “Ansar Allah”, Hajj Mahmoud Hamad.

Civilian Activity – Reconstruction of Lebanon

(January 08) Hezbollah’s Public Works Department has launched reconstruction activity in the Jabal Amel area under the title “From the Iranian People to the Lebanese People,” in order to rehabilitate schools, mosques, and central infrastructure after the war in southern Lebanon.

The article can be viewed in the video.

The reconstruction project of Hezbollah’s “Jihad al-Binaa” wing: “Promise and Fulfillment”

As part of Hezbollah’s “Construction Jihad” wing, the organization’s rehabilitation project published data last week on its progress in rehabilitating the houses damaged by salinization. The table below lists the five areas of operation: the villages south of the Litani River, the villages north of the Litani River and the western Bekaa, Beirut and the southern Dahiya, the Bekaa, Baalbek and Harmel and the last area is northern Lebanon.

According to the summary of the data, as of January 06, more than 171,000 damage assessments were carried out.

Additional data that appears in the table: the number of assistance centers, the number of engineers, the number of towns and villages, the number of housing units that were inspected.

Who is the new head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council? According to various reports, Sheikh Ali Damoush, who was the deputy head of the council, was appointed to the position. In 1994 he joined Hezbollah and since 1998 has held various positions in the Executive Council, including head of the Foreign Relations Unit. Read our article: Ali Damoush, the new head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council. Ali Damoush – The New Head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council.

Lebanon – General:

The election of Joseph Aoun as the 14th President of Lebanon.

(January 09) General Joseph Aoun was elected by a majority of 99 out of 128 members of the Lebanese parliament, ending the presidential crisis that has been going on for two years, two months and nine days in Lebanon. The president-elect became the fourteenth president of the Lebanese Republic, the fifth army commander to be elected president, and the fourth in a row after presidents Emile Lahoud, Michel Suleiman and Michel Aoun.

Following his election as president, General Joseph Aoun made his first presidential address as a “road map” to save Lebanon, pointing out all of the country’s scars and painting a complete image of what the new period will be like. In the speech’s headlines, he noted that “a new phase in Lebanon’s history begins today,” exercising “the full powers of the president of the republic as the guardian of justice between institutions” and saying, “We must all be under the roof of the law and under the roof of the judiciary if we want to build a homeland.”  He made a promise to work together “with the next government to pass a new bill on the independence of the judiciary” as well as “respect the separation of powers.” “There is no more mafia, no more security outposts, no smuggling, money laundering, drug trafficking, or interference in the judicial system.”  He also vowed to “rebuild the public administration, rotate positions, and establish regulatory bodies.” He not only upheld “the state’s right to monopolize the carrying of weapons” but also suggested “discussing an integrated defense policy as part of a national security strategy that will allow the Lebanese state to remove the Israeli occupation” as well as “investing in the military to control the borders, fight terrorism, and maintain the unity of Lebanese territory.”

In his address, President Aoun announced his intention to “rebuild what has been destroyed by Israeli aggression,” and he highlighted “the establishment of the best relations with the Arab countries and the building of strategic partnerships with the countries of the Levant, the Arab Gulf and North Africa.”

As for Syria, which is also at the beginning of a new era, he stated: “We have a historic opportunity to start a serious and egalitarian dialogue with the Syrian state to address all the outstanding issues between us”.

The following is a detailed document regarding the president-elect that was published on Alma’s website last week: Joseph Aoun – Will He be The Next President of Lebanon?

Before the announcement of Aoun’s election, we published additional article:  Lebanese Presidential Elections: Will the Presidential Crisis Come to an End?

Many street posters have published a picture of Aoun, with the caption “Army, People and the State”, next to the caption: #It’s time for change.

With the election of Joseph Aoun as the 14th president of Lebanon, a campaign began in Lebanon under the title “It’s Time for Change,” with the most prominent and significant issue in this campaign being the branding of the new slogan “Army, People, State” along with a picture of the new president in which many hopes are pinned. The inscription contradicts Hezbollah’s slogan, “The people, the army, and the resistance.” Hezbollah’s slogan was created after the 2006 war, when Hezbollah refused to discuss the future of its possession of weapons and the idea of resistance and the connection between the two to the state.

Hezbollah has turned its slogan into a central narrative in its cognitive campaign, a narrative that has helped it justify the “resistance” alongside the existence of the Lebanese army. Hezbollah even went so far as to define itself as the defender of Lebanon alongside the Lebanese army…

Hezbollah and its supporters are currently facing a transitional phase or crisis. It’s important to note that the recent war, its course, Hezbollah’s failures, and the subsequent cease-fire agreement have all played a significant role in shaping the current situation. The international community, in addition to growing concerns, is urging the Lebanese government to take responsibility for preventing Hezbollah’s rearmament activities and bolstering the Lebanese army’s oversight of the air, land, and sea border crossings. This is to prevent the smuggling of weapons to the organization, which has seen its capabilities diminished due to the war.

Joseph Aoun’s election has already improved Lebanon’s situation. However, this will have no meaningful influence on Hezbollah’s military capabilities. Hezbollah will keep trying to recover and grow stronger. Will Joseph Aoun, as president, act against Hezbollah, something he has not done as army chief since 2017? We are quite skeptical. During his tenure as army commander, Hezbollah grew significantly militarily, did whatever it liked in southern Lebanon, and plotted and prepared to attack the Galilee. What did the Lebanese army accomplish under Aoun’s command? Nothing…

In the video: Welcoming Ceremony of President Joseph Aoun

In his inaugural speech after his election as president, Aoun spoke of “the state’s right to a monopoly on arms.” We cannot yet predict what Aoun will do with the weapons in Hezbollah’s hands, as all these factors suggest that Aoun’s involvement in “illegal weapons” will be a topic of discussion. He will not solely decide on the Hezbollah issue but will collaborate with various political blocs to understand their perspectives. Therefore, it seems that he is not inclined to go “head-to-head” against Hezbollah but rather to create a clear dialogue with it regarding its weapons, thus ensuring its existence and political power.

January 13: The Election of Nawaf Salam as Prime Minister of Lebanon:

The newly elected President of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, appointed Judge Nawaf Salam to form the new Lebanese government after completing parliamentary consultations. Judge Nawaf Salam received 85 votes, defeating his rival, the current Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, who received only 9 votes, while 34 members of parliament abstained from voting.

Nawaf Salam, a Sunni Muslim born in 1957, has served as a judge and President of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) since February 2024. His name emerged as a candidate to form the new Lebanese government.

It is worth noting that this is not the first time Nawaf Salam’s name has been proposed to form a government in Lebanon. He was first proposed in 2019 following the resignation of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri amid protests that erupted in Lebanon alongside the economic crisis. However, Hezbollah and the Amal Movement blocked this appointment, claiming that he was a candidate of the United States.

Salam is known for his repeated calls for reform in Lebanon, his defense of the country’s sovereignty, and his emphasis on limiting weapons to security services and the army only. Salam is also recognized for his international and Arab relations, which many rely on to help Lebanon out of its economic and political crisis.

(January 9) As part of the deployment of the Lebanese army in the south of the country, the American and French representatives were presented with several 122 mm rockets, long and short, which the Lebanese army claimed were seized and confiscated in the area of Naqoura on January 7, after the withdrawal of IDF forces.

It is not clear whether these were Hezbollah rockets. The U.S. Central Command’s announcement referred to “unauthorized armed groups.” The Lebanese army may have confiscated these rockets from Palestinian terrorist organizations in the past, not from Hezbollah. It is not possible to determine whether this is an authentic incident, or a show intended to prove that the Lebanese army is ostensibly fulfilling its part in enforcing the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah.

It should be noted that this is a small amount compared to the means of phlegm seized so far by the IDF in its operations in southern Lebanon. Below is a link to the published document.

The Syrian Arena:

The IDF’s Activity in Syria

(January 09) In recent weeks, during the IDF’s operations in southern Syria, IDF forces located an armored personnel carrier containing a large number of weapons, anti-tank missiles, and IEDs belonging to the former Syrian army. These weapons and equipment were also stored by the local residents during the civil war, and some of which also belonged to various local militias of the locals.

(January 6) The US Central Command announced that between January 2 and January 3, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), with the support of CENTCOM forces, carried out airstrikes against ISIS activity in Syria, and as a result the leader of ISIS’s attack squad was captured.

(January 11) Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati met with Ahmed al-Shara. In their first meeting, the two discussed relations between the two countries, the issue of Syrian refugees in Lebanon, and the smuggling on the borders between the two countries.

(Najib Mikati’s meeting with Ahmed al-Shara)

(January 10) Marhaf Abu Qasra, minister of defense in the Syrian transitional government, and several officers from the ministry’s general staff met with a military delegation, among them Salem al-Turki, commander of the Free Syrian Army, stationed around Al-Tanf in the tri-border area between Syria, Iraq, and Jordan. This area is under American control and the rebel forces present there operate under American auspices.

 The meeting focused on the mechanism for integrating the Free Syrian Army into the organizational structure of the Syrian Ministry of Defense. The new Syrian Ministry of Defense has been holding meetings with military factions throughout Syria for weeks to integrate them into the official Syrian army.

General Ali Noureddine Naasan has been appointed as the new chief of the Syrian General Staff. Al-Naasan has held several military roles, fought and commanded numerous fights against the Assad regime’s forces in northern Syrian cities, and was promoted to general in the new Syrian leadership’s first promotion bulletin, which was issued last month.

(January 10) During his visit to Damascus, Antonio Tajani, deputy prime minister of Italy, met with  Ahmed al-Shara. During the meeting, the Italian official stressed that Europe is determined to support the reconstruction of Syria and to reconsider the sanctions imposed on Damascus. At a press conference with his Syrian counterpart, Assad al-Shibani, Tajani said that he had raised the issue of the sanctions imposed on Syria after the start of the conflict in 2011 due to the suppression of pro-democracy demonstrations, saying that they were “not directed against the Syrian people at all.” “They were imposed because of a different regime,” he said, noting that statements made earlier by the EU’s foreign affairs chief regarding sanctions were moving in the right direction.

The Shiite Axis – General

Yemen – Houthi-Land:

During the past week (January 6-14), the Houthis carried out 13 attacks, including 10 against targets in Israel and 3 against the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman. The attacks were carried out using UAVs and cruise missiles.

During the past week, on January 8, American forces carried out an attack against two underground storage facilities used by the Houthis. In addition, on January 10, Israel and the United States jointly attacked the Hezyaz power plant in Sana’a, which serves as the main electricity infrastructure, and the ports in Hodeida and Ras Issa, which serve as sources of arms smuggling for the Houthis. This is Israel’s fifth attack on Yemen since the beginning of the war.

Above: Part of the ballistic missile launched from Yemen falling on a house in Tzur Hadassah / Photo: Police spokespersons

Since the beginning of the war, about 40 surface-to-surface missiles and about 320 UAVs have been launched from Yemen toward the State of Israel.

Since October 2023, there have been 333 Houthi attacks against Israel, the United States, and other targets.

Picture of Alma Research

Alma Research

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