Main points:
IDF Activity in Syria
With the fall of the Assad regime, as of this writing, the IDF has been operating on the ground, in the air, and at sea in the Syrian arena over the past week. This activity aims to prevent extremist forces from seizing and using weapons that the collapsed Syrian army left behind. Furthermore, the intention is to rule out any possibility that these weapons will succeed in falling into Hezbollah’s hands.
In addition, Israel is operating within the buffer zone located in Syrian territory near Israel’s border. A lesson Israel learned on October 7, 2023. Israel’s room for error is almost non-existent. Therefore, misjudging the intentions of the new forces in Syria could result in the loss of many Israeli civilian lives. Israel cannot allow another such possibility.
Moreover, it should be remembered that the separation of forces agreement, which created the buffer zone and was signed with Syria after the Yom Kippur War in 1974, effectively collapsed. It collapsed because the Syrian army no longer exists, and there is no one to sustain it on the Syrian side. Therefore, Israel is exercising its right to self-defense and creating a security zone that responds to the lessons learned from October 7, as stated above.
In the ground defense activity in Syrian territory and along the border, weapons were located, including anti-tank missiles, weapons, combat vests, ammunition, and other military equipment.
As part of Operation ‘Arrow of the Bashan’, the IDF attacked most of Syria’s strategic weapons stockpiles within 48 hours. Hundreds of targets were struck, from the air and sea, including anti-aircraft batteries, Syrian Air Force airfields, and various weapons production sites in the areas of Damascus, Homs, Tartus, Latakia, and Palmyra. These waves of attacks have degraded many weapons, including sea-to-sea missiles, Scud missiles, cruise missiles, shore-to-sea missiles, surface-to-air missiles, surface-to-surface missiles, UAVs, fighter jets and combat helicopters, radars, tanks, and more. Further to this, see the article – The Destruction of the Syrian Army’s Weapons and the Presence in the Buffer Zone – necessary actions to Thwart a clear and immediate threat to Israel.
Additionally, the IDF demolished 20 electronic and communications sites belonging to the Assad army across Syria. The IDF destroyed the sites where the (former) Syrian Army stationed its communications antennas and electronic warfare.
Hezbollah Violations of the ceasefire:
Hezbollah continues to violate the cease-fire agreements, accusing Israel of breaches. During the past week, Hezbollah violated the ceasefire 14 times.
Since the beginning of the ceasefire on November 27, we are aware of 93 violations of the ceasefire agreements by Hezbollah.
The decrease in the number of violations stems mainly from the lack of reports regarding them.
IDF activity in Lebanon:
Under the cease-fire agreements, the IDF continues its activities to remove the threats in southern Lebanon and operate against Hezbollah terrorist targets near the border. During the operation, the forces discovered numerous weapons such as Kornet launchers and missiles, concealed in a dense, forested, and mountainous area, Kalashnikov rifles, magazines, anti-tank missile launching position, and a weapons depot containing RPG missiles and mortar shells. Furthermore, the operation destroyed terrorist infrastructure and the elimination of Hezbollah terrorists.
The Lebanese arena:
War Data – See Summary of War Data – Northern Theater.
Hezbollah – General:
(December 14) Naim Qassem’s speech
Naim Qassem repeats the main motifs of his speeches, first and foremost Hezbollah’s “victory” theme. He said that Hezbollah had succeeded in preventing Israel from destroying the organization, which had succeeded in inflicting losses on Israel and preventing it from achieving its goal, which was to defeat Hezbollah. When Israel realized that it would not succeed in defeating Hezbollah, it turned to a ceasefire.
Pointing to the factors of strength, steadfastness, and victory, Qassem said: “There are three factors that enabled us win: the first is the steadfastness of the legendary resistance on the ground, the second factor is the blood of the martyrs, led by the blood of Sayyid Nasrallah, and the third factor is the integrated and effective political management with the management of the opposition to the “beginning of defeat” campaign, stressing that “the resistance remained on the ground until the last moment.”
Qassem accuses Israel of violating the ceasefire, noting that “we in Hezbollah are monitoring what is happening and acting according to our discretion of interest and the course of things.”
Qassem stated that Hezbollah’s resistance prevails through strategic maneuvers rather than overwhelming force against its adversary. He also emphasized that Hezbollah’s resistance persists through faith and preparation. He further stated, “We remain uncertain about the exact moment when the resistance will overthrow the occupier; this resistance may triumph or fail, but what matters is its ongoing existence and survival on the ground.” In other words, Hezbollah’s victory lies in its continued existence and survival.
“When the resistance makes sacrifices, it does not mean that it has lost but has paid the price of the continuation of the sacrifices, and the victory in order to remain resistant, and not to respond to the noise of life in a state of disappointment and reaction.” “The victims increase our responsibility in the face of the spreading enemy.” (Note: This concept expresses the education for jihad and the culture of death that Hezbollah supporters sanctify as a supreme value, according to which the glorification of martyrdom (self-sacrifice) is a way of life and a supreme spiritual achievement in the ideological and military struggle).
Naim Qassem stressed that “Hezbollah is strong and recovering from its wounds, and those who hoped for Hezbollah’s end were disappointed.”
“Our work plan in the next stage is the implementation of the agreement in the southern Litani River, the rehabilitation and election of the president, and a positive dialogue on problematic issues, including Lebanon’s position regarding the Israeli occupation of its land. How do you strengthen the Lebanese army? What is Lebanon’s defense strategy?” (Note: Naim Qassem tries to portray reality as if Hezbollah is acting in the interest of Lebanon and its institutions, while the organization is mainly promoting its ideological and political goals at the expense of Lebanese states’ sovereignty.)
Regarding the developments in the Syrian arena, Qassem said, “We can judge the new forces in Syria only when they stabilize, take clear positions, and arrange their situation.” He also wished for “cooperation between the two peoples and governments in Syria and Lebanon.”
Naim Qassem said that because of the events in Syria, “Hezbollah has lost its military supply route at this stage, but this is a minor detail since other ways can be sought” (note: In this case, Qassem publicly admits that Syria served as Hezbollah’s military supply route). Qassem does not rule out the possibility that the new regime in Syria will also allow the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah, thus renewing supplies. And even if not, Qassem notes, Hezbollah will look for other ways; Hezbollah will show flexibility, and what matters is Hezbollah’s continuity. Regarding the means and methods, they can transform and change. (Note: Qassem is correct—the Iranians and Hezbollah are currently recalculating their course and will continue to adapt to the evolving reality).
Civilian Activity – Reconstruction of Lebanon
(December 12) Hezbollah started giving financial compensation to Lebanese who had their homes damaged during the war. Those who lost their only home will receive the first compensation. The photo below shows a check totaling $14,000, which covers one year’s rent (depending on the location) and the cost of furniture purchase. Hezbollah’s financial institution, Al-Qard al-Hassan, a bank with branches throughout Lebanon, processed the payment. The IDF attacked the branches of Al-Qard al-Hassan in October 2024 because the bank was the economic engine behind Hezbollah’s terrorist activity.
Hezbollah is taking advantage of the dysfunction of the Lebanese state to operate as a “state within a state” and assist in rebuilding homes that were destroyed, even though it dragged Lebanon into war. This is in line with his demand for the Lebanese government to assist in reconstruction efforts. This approach not only assumes the role of a problem generator but also suggests potential solutions. These actions strengthen its base of supporters among the Shi’ite public that depends on it.
Last week, the Lebanese government estimated that the cost of renovating the infrastructure in Beirut was about $44 million.
The main body leading the rehabilitation process is the Jihad al-Bina Foundation. According to reports, this organization has been working together with Muamar Engineering and Construction since the first hours after the ceasefire. The CEO of the company, Hussein Khairelddin, announced that the company has established offices in the affected areas of Lebanon, with a manager and several engineers leading each office. All the damaged residential and commercial units will undergo inspections by the engineers, who will also fill out forms, estimate the cost of restoration, and ensure their owners receive payment for the restoration process.
Lebanon – General:
(December 10) A bus driver passing through the Sunni town of Majdal Anjar, near the Al-Musna border crossing, was attacked by Hezbollah opponents. The reason: A poster of Nasrallah was affixed to the windshield of the bus.
(December 10) The Committee Monitoring the Implementation of Resolution 1701, chaired by US General Jasper Jeffers, met at UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura. The committee is supposed to meet regularly and establish a mechanism to help enforce the cease-fire agreements between Israel and Hezbollah.
(December 11) Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun met with the head of the US Central Command, Michael A. Kurilla. According to the report, the two discussed, among other things, the implementation of the ceasefire in southern Lebanon.
(December 12) The Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar estimated that about 90,000 people had fled Syria to Lebanese territory last week following the overthrow of the Assad regime. According to official figures from the Lebanese Interior Ministry, only about 7,000 people crossed, but it is possible that many crossed through unofficial crossings.
The Lebanese Army:
(December 11) The Lebanese Army announced that its forces had been deployed in five outposts around Al-Khayyam and Marjayoun in southern Lebanon as part of the ceasefire agreement and the army’s new deployment in southern Lebanon. According to reports in Lebanon, a UNIFIL engineering force has begun searching for remnants of missiles, shells and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) left in the area after the fighting.
The Syrian Arena:
Abu Muhammad Al-Julani, the undisputed leader of the Al-Nusra Front in the previous decade, is the prominent leader who led the rebel organizations to the removal of the Assad regime in 10 days. Who are you, Al-Julani? Are you a pragmatic jihadist who has chosen to adopt a moderate stance? Read more in the attached article about the most famous man in Syria today—who are you, the jihadist Abu Muhammad Al-Julani, or the moderate Ahmed Hussein al-Shara?
The reconstruction and reconstruction of Syria after the collapse of the Assad regime is expected to pose several challenges and risks to the future regime that will be rehabilitated in Syria. These stem from ideological and sectarian differences but also from foreign interference in the country. Failure could plunge the country into chaos and the rule of armed militias, but success could change the face of the Middle East in the coming decades, leading to stability and many positive possibilities. For more information, see the article The Challenges Facing the New Regime in Syria.
(December 10) The new Prime Minister, Mohammed al-Bashir, announced that he would serve as interim prime minister until March 1, 2025. At the same time, members of the ‘Salvation Government’ on behalf of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Abu Muhammad al-Julani’s organization) met with former Syrian government officials in Damascus to coordinate the transfer of power in an orderly manner.
(December 11) Abu Muhammad Al-Julani initiated coordination meetings with rebel representatives from various regions of Syria. On December 11, Al-Julani held a meeting in Damascus with representatives of rebels from southern Syria. In the photo, one can identify Ahmed al-Awda, one of the rebel leaders in southern Syria now (standing fourth on the right, near al-Julani). Ahmed al-Awda was also known to us as an ally of Jabhat al-Nusra in 2015. We would like to remind you that Abu Muhammad al-Julani in previous times was the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra before it became Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Years later, al-Awda was the commander of the “8th Brigade” in the Daraa area. This is a local militia that operated as part of the “Fifth Corps,” which was a proxy for the Russians in the Daraa Province. Refer to the article “Southern Syria: Who is the Russian proxy operating in the region, and will it be able to keep the Iranians and their affiliated forces away from the Israeli border?”
Over the past week, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain, Oman, and Italy have resumed the activity of their embassies in Damascus. Qatar and Turkey have also announced their intentions to reopen their embassies. The French Foreign Minister announced that a French diplomatic delegation will soon arrive in Damascus to renew relations with Syria after the fall of the Assad regime. In addition, it was reported that Britain is holding secret talks with the new regime in Syria through diplomatic channels.
(December 12) According to an unverifiable report as of this writing, Russia is expected to reach an agreement with the new leadership in Syria to keep its two main bases in the country (the Russian Air Force base in Hmeimim and the seaport in Tartus). In recent days, it appears that the Russians are withdrawing their forces from across Syria to the Hmeimim base. This was apparently done in coordination with the new regime since the movement of the Russians is carried out in large convoys, openly, in daylight, on the main traffic arteries.
From time to time, Russians are “insulted” by rebel forces in their path (swearing, obscene gestures, and waving shoe soles at the Russians, an act that symbolizes contempt and humiliation).
In the video below, an underground tunnel around Al-Qatayfa, the Qalamoun Mountains in Syria, near the Lebanese border, was discovered by Syrian rebel forces.
(December 15) Individuals linked to the Assad regime have begun arriving at locations set up by the new government, where they can return their weapons to the authorities and complete formal registration. One of the locations is in the former Ba’ath Party branch building in Tartus (pictured on the right). This process is similar to the status regularization procedures that were applied to opposition forces during Assad’s regime.
In the video below, a head of the reopening of Damascus International Airport, planes are painted with the flag of the revolution
The Shiite Axis – General
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq:
During the past week (December 9-15), the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for attacking a vital target in southern Israel with UAVs. It was reported that a UAV launched from Iraq was intercepted.
From 02 November 2023, when the Islamic resistance in Iraq began carrying out attacks against Israel, until December 15, 2024, they assumed responsibility for 321 attacks against Israel. 98 of them reached Israeli territory (intercepted or fell in open areas).
Yemen – Houthi-Land:
(December 9) A UAV launched by the Houthis from Yemen hit a residential building in the city of Yavne. There was extensive property damage and there were no casualties. The Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack.
(December 10) The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacking three American supply ships, and two American destroyers that escorted the supply ships in the Gulf of Aden.
(December 12) The Houthis claimed responsibility for a combined attack with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq on a vital target in southern Israel using UAVs. It was reported that a UAV launched from Iraq was intercepted.
(December 13) The Houthis claim responsibility for an attack on a military target in Ashkelon and another in Jaffa. No further indications were reported.
Since October 2023, there have been 241 Houthi attacks against Israel, the United States, and other targets.
