Above: A photo from the Lebanese Army’s Directorate of Guidance of the makeshift launchers used to fire rockets at Israel.
Six rockets were fired from southern Lebanon toward Israel. At the same time, Israel expanded its fighting in the Gaza Strip, and the Houthis from Yemen continue their launches toward Israel.
On March 22, 2025, six rockets were fired from Lebanese territory towards Metula, some of which fell within Lebanese territory and the rest were intercepted. This is the third firing incident from Lebanon since the ceasefire in November 2024. The Lebanese army did not prevent the firing but managed to locate its source afterward. The President and Prime Minister of Lebanon warned against escalation but did not accuse any specific entity.
In response, the IDF attacked targets in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley in two waves, hitting terror infrastructure and destroying command centers, weapons depots, and rocket launchers, while eliminating several Hezbollah operatives. Although Hezbollah controls the launch area (the geographical sector of the Badr Unit), it is unclear whether it carried out the firing, or whether Palestinian (or other) elements operating in Lebanon are responsible.
Hezbollah, for its part, denied involvement and claimed it is committed to the ceasefire, but it may have known about the firing in advance or tacitly approved it. However, we assess that Hezbollah seeks to maintain a “rehabilitation quiet” so that it can rehabilitate its infrastructure, and therefore, assuming that Hezbollah did not carry out the firing, it was surprised by the event. The Palestinian terror organizations, which enjoy civilian support from Hezbollah, pose a challenge for it, and it is trying to control their actions to prevent harm to its interests. See our article that was published.
Gaza Strip
The fighting arena in the southern Gaza Strip remained active, and terror organizations from Gaza fired three rockets towards Israel, which were successfully intercepted by the Air Force. It appears that Israel’s military activity in the Gaza Strip is currently focused on eliminating senior figures and destroying terror infrastructure through airstrikes.
In the past week, the IDF has been operating to eliminate senior Hamas figures (senior figures in the political bureau and senior figures in the military wing): Rashid Jahjuh, who headed the secret apparatus responsible for exposing collaborators and securing senior Hamas figures, Osama Tabash, a prominent field commander in Hamas, Salah al-Bardawil, a senior figure in the Hamas political bureau, and on March 23, Hamas Prime Minister in the Strip, Ismail Barhoum, who replaced Issam Daalis in the past week, who was also eliminated, was killed.
Houthis
The Houthis in Yemen have increased their attacks against Israel and against US ships due to the resume of the fighting in the Gaza Strip, firing several long-range missiles towards central Israel and cruise missiles towards the American aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman.
In the organization’s claims of responsibility, they stated that the purpose of the missiles fired at Israel was to strike Ben Gurion Airport, but Israel’s air defense systems, in cooperation with international forces, managed to intercept them, and no damage was reported.
In the image on the left: A summary of the Houthis’ attacks against Israel and the United States, published daily.
The Lebanese Arena
Lebanon General:
The Lebanese army is preparing for a broad deployment on the northern border with Syria.
On March 21, the Lebanese army reported that it had begun reinforcing its forces on the northern border with Syria to strengthen security and prevent illegal infiltrations. As part of the deployment, the army is establishing roadblocks, conducting increased patrols, and increasing the military presence in the area.
On March 19, the Lebanese army entered the Lebanese part of the town of Hosh al-Sayed Ali on the border with Syria, following the withdrawal of the Syrian armed groups, after the artillery attacks that took place last week that led to the deaths of seven people and the injury of about 60 others.
In Lebanon, there are growing calls for an official demarcation of the border with Syria, following disputes over 36 points along the shared border.
Hezbollah General
Cultural activity of the Imam al-Mahdi Scouts in Sidon
The Sidon district in the Imam al-Mahdi Scouts movement held a cultural activity for women on March 21 in the hall of the “Sayyid al-Shuhadaa” complex, in the presence of senior Hezbollah officials and women representatives in the organization.
The Palestinians in Lebanon
Palestinian rally in Sidon in support of the Gaza Strip
The Hamas movement and the Jamaah al-Islamiyah Group held a rally in Sidon on March 20 to condemn the renewal of Israeli fighting in the Gaza Strip, which they claim is being carried out with US support and without regard for the ceasefire agreements. The Hamas representative in Lebanon, Ayman Sanaa, praised the steadfastness of the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank and accused the international community of responsibility for Israel’s crimes. He emphasized that the Palestinian resistance will not be silent in the face of the attacks and that support for it must be increased.
The Deputy Head of the Political Bureau of the Islamic Group, Dr. Bassam Hamoud, also condemned the “crimes against the Palestinians” and claimed that the US is fully complicit in the acts of violence. The participants waved Palestinian and Lebanese flags, chanted slogans against Israel and the US, and called on the world to stand by the Palestinian people.
Campaign by Palestinians in Lebanon to collect donations for the Gaza Strip
Since the beginning of the fighting in the Gaza Strip, Palestinians in Lebanon have expressed broad support for the residents of Gaza, organizing demonstrations, donation drives, and digital campaigns to raise awareness of the situation in Gaza and initiating aid operations for the residents of the Gaza Strip.
It should be noted that in many cases, these donations reach those who initiated the campaign, who take the money for themselves.
In most cases, the donations do not actually reach their destination, and in many cases, they even go directly to terrorist organizations, which use the money and resources for their terrorist activities.
How many Palestinian “refugees” in Lebanon?
In our previous publication from March 27 regarding the Palestinians in Lebanon, an error occurred in the wording of the data, which could have been understood as implying that an updated census of the Palestinians in Lebanon had allegedly been conducted. This is not the case, and we wish to clarify the updated details.
In 2024, UNRWA in Lebanon launched a digital verification process for Palestinian aid recipients, aimed at ensuring that those receiving assistance indeed reside in Lebanon. The process was implemented gradually, starting with the elderly and later expanding to additional age groups. Upon completion of the verification process, UNRWA’s director in Lebanon, Dorothee Klaus, announced that 222,000 Palestinians were registered in Lebanon, including 27,000 Palestinian refugees who had arrived from Syria. However, it was emphasized that this number does not necessarily reflect the actual situation, as many Palestinians did not participate in the digital verification process.
Following the publication of the data, a widespread controversy arose, with Palestinian factions casting doubt on the figures and claiming that many refrained from registering due to security concerns, lack of awareness, or no need for assistance. The primary fear is that the published number will be used to reduce humanitarian aid, particularly amid the economic and political pressure exerted on UNRWA. According to UNRWA’s data as of the end of 2023, the number of registered Palestinian refugees in Lebanon stood at 493,201, alongside 31,400 Palestinians from Syria.
According to a study conducted in 2017 by the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee in collaboration with the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, the number of Palestinians in Lebanon was estimated at only 174,422. The Palestinians live in 12 official “refugee camps” and 156 Palestinian concentration areas. Approximately 45.1% of them are under the age of 24, while 4.7% are over the age of 65. The unemployment rate among them stands at 23.2%, and the poverty rate reaches 65%.
The main and well-known concentrations of the Palestinian population are Rashidieh, Burj al-Shemali, and al-Bass in Tyre; Ein al-Hilweh and Mieh Mieh in Sidon; Shatila and Burj al-Barajneh in Beirut; al-Beddawi and Nahr al-Bared in Tripoli; and al-Jalil in the Bekaa.
The numerical discrepancies mentioned above, over a relatively short period of years, highlight the gaps between the various estimates over time regarding the true number of “local” Palestinians in Lebanon. These varying estimates also include Palestinians who arrived in Lebanon from Syria due to the civil war that took place there, which further contributes to the confusion in the numbers.
We do not know the extent to which the above data is accurate. Based on the information known to us, the number of “local” Palestinians in Lebanon is estimated at around 200,000.
The Palestinians in Lebanon have long ceased to be “guests” and “refugees.” De facto, they are locals, and the word “refugees” is intended to preserve the narrative and nothing more.
The Syrian Arena
IDF activity in Syria:
On March 21, the IDF attacked weapons that remained in the area of the Syrian military bases Tadmor and T4. It should be noted that the names of these airfields also came up in the context of the Turkish military entrenchment in Syria, as potential locations where the Turkish army plans to establish a presence. That is in addition to the Minaq military airfield, located about 35 kilometers north of the city of Aleppo.
Israel continues to work to eliminate threats also in southern Syria. During the night of March 17, the IDF attacked targets in and around the city of Deraa. It appears that the attack included at least two adjacent targets in the north of the city, which, according to the IDF spokesperson, were used for military purposes. In an attack in the northern Golan Heights on March 18, artillery cannons were attacked in the Khan Arnabeh area in the northern Golan. In addition to these attacks, reports in Syria claim that in recent days IDF forces carried out several raids at several sites in the Golan Heights against former military positions and against other sites. Against the backdrop of statements by senior officials in Israel and the attitude towards the new regime in Syria, and given the current instability in the country, it can be assessed that Israel will continue to attack in southern Syria in the near future. These attacks are intended to destroy existing military capabilities and prevent the establishment of new security mechanisms in the area.
Syria General:
New police officers in Damascus
On March 22, the Syrian Ministry of Interior held a graduation ceremony for a new group of police college recruits in the Damascus district, as part of ongoing efforts to strengthen the security system in the country. The move is intended to train and deploy qualified and skilled personnel in all police units, in order to maintain security and public order throughout Syria. Many young people joined the training courses in order to secure a stable employment future for themselves.
The US military remains in Syria and Iraq
Over the past week, it was decided that U.S. forces will remain in the region following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and concerns over the resurgence of ISIS activity and the emergence of new or dormant Salafi organizations. This decision comes despite the announcement on September 27, 2024, by the United States and Iraq of a two-stage transition plan for the gradual end to the presence of coalition forces in Iraq and Syria.
US forces, which currently number about 2,500 soldiers in Iraq and about 2,000 in Syria, are expected to move from their current location in Baghdad to the Kurdistan region in Iraq, which strengthens their strategic influence as a logistical and operational center for both countries. However, Iraq has chosen to maintain the presence of coalition forces at the Ain al-Assad base in the west of the country, due to concerns about the renewal of ISIS activity in northeastern Syria and the Iraqi borders, which led to the continued security cooperation with the US and other countries.
Reopening of the German Embassy in Syria
The German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, visited Damascus and announced the reopening of the German Embassy in Syria, in a move that symbolizes the return of diplomatic relations between the countries. In a meeting with the President of Syria, Ahmad al-Shara, and the Foreign Minister, Asaad al-Shibani, Baerbock emphasized Germany’s commitment to the reconstruction of Syria and the upgrading of its infrastructure, while calling for the inclusion of minorities in the political process. She also called on the Syrian government to join the international coalition against ISIS and expressed concern about the intervention of Iran and other elements in exacerbating tensions in the Syrian coastal region. Baerbock announced that Germany will facilitate the return of Syrian refugees to their country and will continue to assist Syrians in neighboring countries, with an emphasis on Jordan and Lebanon.
Putin in a letter to the President of Syria: Russia is committed to cooperation and stabilizing the country
The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, sent a letter to the President of Syria, Ahmad al-Shara, in which he called for strengthening of the cooperation between the countries, emphasizing Moscow’s support for the new government’s efforts to stabilize the country. Putin emphasized the importance of preserving Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and pledged to continue cooperation in strategic areas.
Since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime last December, Russia has been working to re-establish its influence in the country through economic support, including 2 shipments of oil and money, and negotiating its military presence. In this context, there’s a conflicting picture emerging: Moscow is reportedly considering apologizing for wartime attacks on Syrian civilians, yet simultaneously refusing to extradite Assad, who sought refuge in Russia.
The return of over a million refugees and displaced people
Following the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, about 1.2 million Syrians returned to their areas of residence, including 885,000 displaced persons and 302,000 refugees (according to data from the UN Humanitarian Coordinator in Syria, as presented during a press conference at the UN headquarters in New York that took place on March 20). However, only 100,000 out of about 2 million displaced persons in northwestern Syria have returned, due to the lack of basic services, security risks, and a lack of legal documents.
In Idlib, only 20,000 families out of the 270,000 residing in displaced persons camps have returned, due to widespread destruction, lack of infrastructure, and numerous land mines (according to the director of the Idlib Department of Welfare and Labor, in an interview with “Syria TV”).
