The Northern Arena and the Shiite Axis – Weekly Review of Key Events and Data (March 31 – April 7)

The Lebanese Arena

IDF Activity in Lebanon

On April 7, the IDF attacked and eliminated Muhammad Adnan Mansour (See video), the artillery commander of the Al-Tayiba region in Hezbollah, using an aircraft.

During the war, Mansour carried out numerous projectile attacks targeting the Upper Galilee region.

Above: Muhammad Adnan Mansour

On April 1st, a 9-story building in the Dahiya, a key Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut, was attacked from the air, with the top three floors severely damaged. According to the IDF spokesperson, the target of the attack was Hassan Badir, who directed Hamas operatives and aided them in an attempt to carry out a severe attack against Israeli civilians in the immediate future. Badir was a very senior operative in Unit 3900, a joint unit of Hezbollah and the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards. The unit’s main mission is cooperation with Palestinian terrorist organizations, financial support, and the channeling of resources to carry out attacks against Israeli targets, both in Israel and worldwide.

On April 6th, Israeli Air Force planes attacked two Hezbollah members who were using a tractor in the Zibqin area of southern Lebanon, targeting their efforts to repair Hezbollah’s terror infrastructure.

Above: On the right, Ali Hassan Tlibi, on the left, Adnan Pachal Bazia

On April 3rd, a vehicle was attacked from the air in the village of Alma al-Shaab in southern Lebanon, targeting a Hezbollah operative. Apparently, the operative was injured. Additionally, a building belonging to Hezbollah’s Islamic Health Authority in the town of Naqoura was attacked from the air. The building, which was used as a terror infrastructure, was destroyed.

On April 4th, Hassan Farhat, known as Abu Yasser, was eliminated. Farhat was the commander of the western sector of Hamas-Lebanon, and he was eliminated in the city of Sidon by a targeted aerial attack on his fifth-floor apartment in an apartment building. The rocket launch towards the city of Safed, carried out under his direction on February 14, 2024, killed a soldier and injured others.

Lebanon General:

Visit of the US Administration’s Deputy Envoy to the Middle East in Lebanon

Above: Lebanese Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam and Morgan Ortagus

The US Administration’s Deputy Envoy to the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus, paid a three-day visit to Beirut, during which she met with senior Lebanese government officials – including President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, the army commander, the foreign minister, the finance minister, and the governor of the central bank.

According to various reports, the talks focused on U.S. demands for Hezbollah’s disarmament, the establishment of joint committees to discuss Israel’s withdrawal from areas it still holds in Lebanon, resolving border issues, and the return of detainees. In addition, conditions for the country’s rehabilitation were presented, including full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, establishing the state’s sole control over weapons, and implementing economic and structural reforms.

The Lebanese side, led by President Aoun, emphasized its commitment to international resolutions but clarified that the issue of Hezbollah would only be discussed within the framework of an internal dialogue. The Lebanese also rejected any attempt to link Lebanon’s rehabilitation with normalization with Israel.

Ortagus praised the army’s activities and the fight against smuggling, noted progress on the economic front, and expressed the U.S. willingness to assist – conditional on meeting the demands.

Lebanon is at a significant crossroads: on the one hand, unprecedented international pressure to change the internal security and political order, and on the other hand – a real difficulty in dealing with Hezbollah. Will the President of Lebanon and the Prime Minister of Lebanon be able to lead to change and cope with the internal challenge of dealing with Hezbollah? We are not sure.

Syrian Refugees Continue to Arrive in Lebanon

A report published on March 31st by the Emergency and Disaster Management Room, headed by the governor of Akkar, indicates a significant increase in the number of Syrian refugees arriving in the district. The total number of Syrian refugees in the last month reached about twenty thousand. They were dispersed in 27 villages and towns in the Akkar region. Some were hosted by local families, while the rest of the families were dispersed in halls and warehouses converted into temporary shelters.

Controversy Erupts After Lebanese MP Voices Support for Normalization with Israel

Lebanese Member of Parliament, Walid Al-Baarini, on behalf of the “National Moderation Bloc” party, published a post on his X account in which he wrote: “Normalization is not resolved with militant declarations and boasting. Yes to normalization if it protects us from attacks, to save what remains of the south and Dahiya. Yes to normalization if it brings Lebanon peace and prosperity that has been so lacking in recent years. Yes to normalization – and not to opposing the paths that Arab countries are taking, led by Saudi Arabia.”

This is the first time a Lebanese Member of Parliament has publicly supported normalization with Israel. Also, after the Israeli attack in the southern suburb of Beirut in which senior Hezbollah official, Hassan Bader, was eliminated, Al-Baarini called on Hezbollah to hand over its weapons to the state – “to save what remains of the south and Dahiya.”

The statements of Member of Parliament Al-Baarini in favor of normalization with Israel sparked widespread condemnation from national, religious, and social figures in Lebanon. Critics argued that his words constitute a betrayal of the Lebanese victims – the martyrs, the wounded, and the prisoners – who fought for the honor of the nation, and a serious blow to the rights of the Palestinians. It was said that normalization is not a path to peace but a concession to a colonialist project that threatens not only Palestine but the entire region. Residents of the refugee camps called for an economic boycott of Baarini’s businesses, vandalized his pictures, and published posters against him. The need for legal and public action against anyone promoting normalization was also emphasized.

Above: A sign against Al-Baarini with the text: “May the traitors and collaborators against Jerusalem and Gaza die, no to normalization and no to Walid Al-Baarini, yes to the Palestinian cause.”

Hezbollah General

Hezbollah: “Confrontation or Surrender – We Stand in Solidarity with Syria, Yemen, and Palestine”

On April 3rd, Hezbollah issued a statement condemning what it called the “American-Israeli aggression” against Syria, Yemen, Gaza, and Lebanon. The organization claimed that the attacks are part of an “open war” aimed at destabilizing the region, harming the sovereignty of states, and weakening them to force them to submit to the control demands of the US and Israel.

The statement said that the attacks in Syria were intended to weaken the country and prevent its reconstruction, while in Lebanon, American pressure is exerted through Israeli demands. Hezbollah also noted the continued American aggression against Yemen and the increasing Israeli attacks on Gaza, as evidence of the “enemy’s” failure to break the spirit of resistance and popular struggle.

In conclusion, Hezbollah called on the countries of the region to unite against the “dangerous plots” that threaten them and declared that the only option is “either confrontation or surrender.”

Hezbollah continues to adopt a militant tone in its statements, but as of this writing, it has not yet managed to respond against Israel and has not yet carried out its declarations, despite the fact that intentions and planning of military terrorist activities are constantly taking place both from Lebanese territory and in various countries around the world.

Hezbollah is currently facing several challenges simultaneously:

Socio-economic and political reality: Internal pressure within Lebanon – both from the Lebanese public tired of the organization’s involvement in external conflicts at its expense, and from the new government in Lebanon trying to rehabilitate the country economically and maintain political stability. In addition, Hezbollah’s internal difficulty with its cash flow and consequently difficulty in prioritizing civilian rehabilitation of its civilian base or military rehabilitation.

Problematic relations within the political leadership, the military command, and problematic management: The elimination of Nasrallah and Hashem Safi al-Din created an enormous vacuum, which Naim Qassem, as of this writing, is unable to fill. Power struggles and non-acceptance of authority exist both between senior figures from the political leadership and between senior figures from the military command.

Severe damage (which continues even during the ceasefire) to the military infrastructure, which, among other things, causes severe damage to Hezbollah’s public awareness campaign: The organization’s image that it cultivated and developed since 2006 has been shattered both internally and externally. Many in Lebanon in particular and in the Middle East in general have realized how much weaker Hezbollah is militarily than the image it has built. Despite the motivation to act against Israel stemming from the extremist ideology underlying Hezbollah’s activity, the morale among Hezbollah operatives has also been damaged due to the failure.

Series of Arrests Target Hezbollah Operatives in Europe

On April 1st, the Spanish Civil Guard announced a counter-terrorism operation focused on suspects who were working to assist Hezbollah’s logistics division from Spanish territory, by supplying spare parts for the assembly of UAVs. So far, three arrests have been made in Barcelona.

In this context, in July 2024, authorities in Spain and Germany arrested four people on suspicion of involvement in a network that supplied Hezbollah with components for the production of suicide UAVs, intended for use in attacks in the north against Israel. Three of the suspects were arrested in Spain and one in Germany. The investigation began when the Spanish counter-terrorism police identified suspicious activities of Spanish companies owned by Lebanese citizens, who purchased large quantities of materials and components for the production of UAVs capable of carrying explosive payloads of several kilograms. It is estimated that Hezbollah manufactured hundreds of UAVs using these components. The components purchased included electronic guidance systems, propellers, gasoline engines, over 200 electric motors, and materials for the production of the UAV body and wings. The components purchased by the network, whose members are now detained, were identified in UAVs used by Hezbollah in attacks against Israel in the last war.

On April 3rd, police in Britain announced the arrest of two men linked to Hezbollah. Police stated that investigations revealed that they were engaged in activities outside and within the country, working to promote acts of terrorism and involvement in financing the organization. The police clarified that the investigation is related to “Hezbollah,” which has been outlawed in Britain since 2019, when it was designated as a terrorist organization in Britain.

It is our hope that European countries will indeed step up their efforts to combat Hezbollah activity in their territory, as part of the global fight against terrorism. This includes designating the entire Hezbollah organization as a terrorist group, since Hezbollah’s civilian networks are the ones that enable its military activities. What begins in the Middle East does not end in the Middle East…

Video of the arrest operation.

See a detailed and up-to-date article by the Alma Center on Hezbollah’s UAVs.

Above: Spanish Civil Guard agents in an operation to arrest Hezbollah members in Barcelona. Photo credit: Guardia Civil

Hezbollah Donated Fifty Ready-Made Houses to Residents of the Village of Ramiya Near the Border

On April 1st, Hezbollah, through the “Wa’taawano” association, donated fifty ready-made houses, including furniture, to residents of Ramiya. The donation is intended for tobacco growers whose homes were destroyed. In addition, water tanks were provided and placed in the courtyard of the local school.

The head of the village, Ali Marai, noted that the village was almost completely destroyed (99%) and essential services such as electricity and water were destroyed.

The head of the village “forgot” to mention the amount of Hezbollah’s terror infrastructure that was located by the IDF in the village. This is infrastructure that was built in almost every building in the village and its main purpose was for Hezbollah’s planned invasion of the Galilee. It should be noted that the largest offensive tunnel, about 1000 meters long and 80 meters deep, which was exposed by the IDF in December 2018, originated from Ramiya and penetrated Israeli territory near the settlements of Shtula and Zar’it.

Hezbollah’s Al-Qard al-Hassan Bank – Postponement of Check Redemption and Closure Order for the Sidon Branch

Hezbollah’s bank, Al-Qard al-Hassan, announced on March 31st that “after the completion of the first phase of compensation payments to war victims in the (housing and rehabilitation) project, in which 75% of the total estimated compensation was paid, and due to the completion of preparations for the second phase, the central compensation committee decided to postpone the payment of checks of “Ashraf al-Nas” (the best people) from Saturday 29/03/2025, until 15/04/2025 at the latest.”

On April 2nd, it was reported that the mayor of Sidon, Hazem Badia, decided to close one of the branches of Al-Qard al-Hassan Bank in the city.

Al-Qard al-Hassan issued a clarification stating that “what was published is not accurate,” and added that “the branch in Sidon is operating as usual in its temporary location and will return to its previous and main location in the city of Sidon on Riad al-Solh Street, in the Al-Za’atari building, after the completion of the renovation work as a result of the Israeli attack, and the announcement being circulated is related to the rented building.”

The decision sparked many reactions on social networks: Hezbollah supporters called for an “economic” boycott of Sidon, and Hezbollah opponents welcomed the suggestion.

It should be noted that already on December 20, 2024, a similar document was published in which Badia, the mayor of Sidon, ordered the closure of the temporary branch in the city, as part of a series of precautionary measures taken following the Israeli activity against the bank’s branches in Lebanon, and at the same time, a petition was published by residents of the building in which they demanded that the bank leave for fear of an attack.

Above: The official closure order against the Qard al-Hassan branch in Sidon from December 2024.

The Palestinians in Lebanon

Palestinian Support Rally in the Refugee Camps in Sidon

On April 4th, the Palestinian movements in the Burj al-Barajneh refugee camp held a rally in support and solidarity with the Palestinian people in Gaza in particular and in Palestine in general.

Also, the Hamas movement and the other Palestinian movements in Sidon and the Ein al-Hilweh camp held a funeral for senior Hamas official, Hassan Farhat (Abu Yasser), the commander of the western sector in Lebanon on behalf of Hamas, who was eliminated by Israel.

The Syrian Arena

IDF Activity in Syria:

During the night of April 2nd, a group of militants opened fire on IDF forces operating in the Jabalia Dam area, near the towns of Tasil and Nawa in southern Syria. According to local reports, in response to the shooting, the IDF attacked several times throughout the night in the dam area and around Tel al-Jumu’ and Tel al-Jabiyah, using artillery and airstrikes. Local reports claim that about 10 people were killed, and 10 others were injured as a result of the IDF attacks, most of them from the town of Nawa.

It should be noted that in various videos that were published, it can be seen that at least some of those killed (and also other people filmed around them) were wearing uniforms and carrying combat equipment and weapons. In addition, many calls appeared on social networks encouraging local residents to go out and confront IDF forces, and there are also videos that allegedly show the movement of civilians towards the area of the incident.

A few hours after the incident, the “Islamic Resistance Front in Syria” published a statement in which it claimed responsibility for the shooting at IDF forces (in which it claimed to have harmed the forces and the downing an IDF aircraft), but its credibility is doubtful. This is the second incident in the past two weeks in which IDF forces have been attacked by gunfire in this area, and it appears that the trend of escalation is developing into a significant security challenge for Israel.

This escalation, which began with demonstrations and stone-throwing, continued with the burning of aid packages provided by the IDF and is now continuing with ambushes and live fire towards IDF forces. One of the main concerns is that someone will take advantage of this trend and use the weapons that already exist in southern Syria to challenge Israel and establish a new front against it. Among the potential actors already operating in the country, it is possible to mention Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, global jihadist elements, and Palestinian terrorist organizations. There is no doubt that the IDF presence in southern Syria at this stage is essential for Israel’s security, but it must be remembered that as it continues, the threat to it will also increase, and preparations must be made accordingly.

On April 2nd, Israel attacked three sites in Syria from the air that were being used by the Syrian army. In Damascus, an anti-aircraft site was attacked in the Barzeh area (the headquarters and main offices of the CERS center in Jamraya-Barzeh are located in the Barzeh area. Institute 5200, which was the scientific center of CERS, the school for training scientists, researchers, and engineers, also operated there).

In addition, the military airfields in Hama and T4 (east of Homs) were attacked. The runways, military aircraft, fuel depots, and radars were damaged at the airfields. This is an attack whose main purpose is to continue denying key capabilities that pose a potential threat to Israel. According to unverified reports, whose reliability is unclear, three Turkish engineers were killed in the attack in T4. One of the airfields where Turkey is interested in establishing a military presence, in coordination with the new Syrian regime, is T4.

According to a report by the “Reuters” news agency, Turkey conducted secret visits to the three military bases in Syria before they were attacked by Israel – including the T4 base, the Tadmor base, and Hama airport – as part of preparations for a joint defense agreement with Syria. The Turkish teams examined the condition of the infrastructure at the bases, but another visit that was planned was canceled after Israel attacked these sites. The attack caused heavy damage, especially at the T4 base, and part of the purpose of the attack is to send a message that Israel will not accept an increased Turkish presence in the area.

Turkey has not officially confirmed the visits, and a senior official in the Turkish Ministry of Defense stressed that unofficial reports should not be taken into account. The Turkish Foreign Minister conveyed a message to the US that Syria does not pose a regional threat, and Turkey is taking precautions not to provoke an American response. According to Turkish sources, any instability in Syria could directly harm Turkey, especially in terms of security and refugees.

Syria General:

Agreement Between the “Syrian Democratic Forces” and the Al-Shar’a Regime for a General Syrian Ceasefire

Above: A convoy of Syrian Democratic Forces leaving the “Sheikh Maqsood” and “Ashrafiya” neighborhoods in the city of Aleppo.

On April 4th, the departure of a convoy including fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces from the Ashrafiya and Sheikh Maqsood neighborhoods in the city of Aleppo began, in accordance with the agreement signed with the Syrian government last March.

This move is part of the agreement that also includes a prisoner exchange. It was announced that about 250 detainees were released by the two sides, with about 140 detainees from the “Syrian Democratic Forces” released in exchange for 100 detainees released by the Syrian government. In addition, it was agreed that the prisoner exchange would take place in three stages.

The agreement signed in March includes the integration of the “Syrian Democratic Forces” into the Syrian army and the Syrian government’s control over the areas that were under their control, including the crossings, airports, and oil fields.

Syria: Citizens Who Were Granted Syrian Citizenship After Fighting Alongside Assad Will Soon Be Disqualified

The head of the Population and Immigration Authority in Syria, Abdullah Abdullah, announced on March 20th that Syria will soon begin the process of revoking citizenship granted to Iranians, Arabs, and foreigners who joined the war alongside Bashar Assad’s regime during the years of the civil war. Abdullah emphasized that the revocation of citizenship will only be carried out for those who were granted citizenship for political or military reasons and not for those who obtained it according to the law.

The process is expected to begin after the renovation of the administrative system that was damaged in the war is completed. However, Abdullah noted that it is not possible to estimate the number of people who received such citizenship, as the records are still being updated.

According to Abdullah, most of the foreign militia operatives fled Syria after the fall of the Assad regime.

Gaza Strip

Heavy Rocket Launches from the Central Gaza Strip (Deir al-Balah) toward Israel

On April 6th, at around 9:00 PM, a heavy barrage of about 10 rockets was launched from the central Gaza Strip, from the Deir al-Balah area, towards the Shfela area, Ashdod, Gan Yavne, and Ashkelon. This is the most significant barrage since the resumption of fighting in Gaza. The military wing of Hamas claimed responsibility for the shooting, and the IDF attacked the launcher from which the launch was carried out.

The Iron Dome system intercepted about 5 of the rockets, some of them fell in open areas, and one rocket managed to directly hit a residential neighborhood in Ashkelon, causing extensive damage to vehicles and buildings.

  • At least 27 casualties were evacuated to hospitals – most of them suffering from anxiety. Three civilians were slightly injured by shrapnel or on their way to protected areas.
  • In various areas in Ashdod, Ashkelon, and Gan Yavne, reports were received of falling shrapnel and interception debris, which caused additional damage.
Above: The scene of the fall in Ashkelon, photo by MDA

Yemen: Houthi-Land

Since the resumption of fighting in the Gaza Strip last March – the Houthis have launched 17 ballistic missiles toward Israeli territory. 9 of them triggered alerts in Israel and were intercepted by air defense systems, 8 fell along the way due to technical failure. One UAV was also launched and intercepted.

On Sunday, April 6th, the Houthi spokesman, Yahya Saree, claimed that their forces attacked the American aircraft carrier “Harry Truman” in the Red Sea with a ballistic missile and UAVs. According to him, the attack prevented American forces from carrying out attacks against Yemen, and it is part of the response to the fighting in Gaza. Saree added that the Houthis will continue their military operations until the cessation of “hostilities against Gaza” and the lifting of the siege on it.

At the same time, American airstrikes were reported in Yemen, in which two people were killed and four were injured in the Saada Governorate, and additional targets were bombed on Kamaran Island in the west of the country. The attacks are part of a broad military operation that the US began in mid-March in response to the Houthis’ threats to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

Picture of Alma Research

Alma Research

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