Who Is Behind the Rocket Fire from Syria Toward Southern Golan Heights?

On the night of June 3rd, two rockets were launched from southern Syria toward the southern Golan Heights. This is the first incident of rocket fire from Syria into Israel since the rise of the al-Shara regime in early December 2024.

The rockets were likely launched from the area of the town of Tasil in southern Syria, approximately 12 kilometers from the Israeli border. They hit open areas near the Israeli communities of Hispin and Ramat Magshimim.

In response, the IDF attacked several Syrian regime-affiliated targets in the Daraa Governorate in southern Syria.

While the Syrian Foreign Ministry condemned the Israeli strikes, it refrained from condemning the rocket fire toward Israel. Nonetheless, its statement appeared relatively restrained. The regime emphasized Syria’s lack of interest in posing a threat, stating its commitment to restoring order in the face of destabilizing actors. Interestingly, the statement referred to the Golan Heights as “the Israeli side” rather than “the occupied Golan”.

Shortly after the rocket fire, a previously unknown group calling itself the “Martyr Mohammad Deif Brigades” claimed responsibility in a Telegram poage attributed to the organization.

However, this claim raises several questions. First, the group’s very formation was only announced days earlier, on May 31^st. Moreover, the Telegram channel that posted the claim had operated under a different name until that same day, when it was rebranded. Linguistic style, symbols, and terminology used in the statement further contribute to doubts. Additionally, not long after the claim, sources affiliated with Hamas issued denials asserting no connection between Hamas and this new entity, despite the latter’s attempts to associate itself with Hamas (through its name, founding statement, logo, etc.).

Approximately one hour after the claim by the “Martyr Mohammad Deif Brigades” and the subsequent Hamas denials, another claim of responsibility was issued, this time by the “Islamic Resistance Front in Syria” (Awli al-Bass). The group also released a video allegedly showing the two rockets before launch. Still, as we previously noted regarding this organization, the credibility of its claims (and even its very existence) remains highly questionable.

As of this writing, the identity of those responsible for the rocket fire remains unclear. Southern Syria is home to a many actors, including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Iran and its proxies, global jihadist elements, and local militias. All of these actors are working to expand their presence and capabilities against Israel, particularly given that the al-Shara regime has yet to fully deploy its forces or establish effective control over the region.

Nevertheless, it is highly probable that the actors behind the attack are linked either to Iran or to Palestinian terrorist groups (which themselves often operate under Iranian influence).

Since the fall of the Assad regime, Iran has worked to rebuild some of its operational infrastructure and capabilities in Syria. As part of these efforts, it has been investing in influence operations, as previously assessed in relation to groups like “Awli al-Bass.” Despite the claim of responsibility, there is no concrete evidence that this group possesses real operational capability or a significant presence on the ground.

If Iran is indeed behind the attack, it is likely that Quds Force elements were involved, particularly Unit 18840, the Quds Force’s special operations unit in Syria, which operates under Unit 840, and possibly even Hezbollah. Another option is unit 4000 of the Iranian intelligence organization.

Regarding Hamas and PIJ, there has been a notable uptick in incidents related to their activities in Syria in recent months. After the Assad regime’s fall, several experienced operatives from these groups were released from prison. In recent months, the IDF has struck multiple sites in Syria connected to their operations, including weapons and equipment depots. Diplomatic pressure has also been mounting on the Syrian regime to expel these organizations’ representatives. Additionally, both groups are known to have recruited local Syrian residents for their activities. Therefore, even if these organizations were indeed behind the rocket fire, it does not necessarily imply that the operatives involved were Palestinians.